811 Miller Rd · Lake Orion, MI 48362

$214,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1920 8,712 sqft lot Est $269k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL OFFERS DUE SATURDAY AT 1PM. Charming, cute, and cozy, this lovely home sits just a short walk from downtown Lake Orion. Thoughtful updates throughout include a new A/C, new hot water tank, new sump pump, and new appliances - washer, dryer, refrigerator, a stove/range with two ovens for the cooks and bakers in your life. The expansive yard offers plenty of room to relax or entertain, highlighted by a new composite deck perfect for summer evenings. A one-car garage with electricity adds convenience and extra storage. A wonderful blend of comfort, updates and location.

Key facts

• New hot water tank
• New sump pump
• New a/c

Tags

• NEW A/C
• NEW HOT WATER TANK
• NEW SUMP PUMP
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW COMPOSITE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 86 x 162 x 50 x 129 (0.2 acres); Directions: North side of Miller Rd between Orion Rd and Conklin; cross streets Lapeer Rd / M24 and Flint Street
• Financial info: Annual property tax reported
• HOA & community: Subdivision: BUNNY RUN COUNTRY CLUB

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built area above grade: 871 (finished); Finished below grade area: 400
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator; Free-standing gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Smart thermostat; Partially finished walk-out daylight basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $214k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Orion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MI, #1,679 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $214,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.80%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,715
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
790 Luna Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+2%)	0mo	$307,000	$251	89
811 Miller Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,271 (+6%)	0mo	$219,000	$172	86
733 Luna Ct	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,128 (-6%)	3mo	$245,000	$217	79
1334 De Goff Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+1%)	6mo	$272,000	$224	69
902 Mcclellan St	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,150 (-5%)	13mo	$256,000	$223	69
749 Mariday St	0.14mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,316 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$209	68
225 E Shadbolt St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,215 (+1%)	8mo	$315,000	$259	66
1075 Seabury Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,121 (-7%)	9mo	$225,000	$201	62
243 Reno St	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,068 (-11%)	12mo	$240,000	$225	58
586 Bagley St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (-14%)	1mo	$242,500	$234	50
414 Norland St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	12mo	$265,000	$204	47
325 N Broadway St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,318 (+9%)	1mo	$165,000	$125	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-342
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $43,894
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,337/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $600	+0% $539	+5% $479	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $345	-5% $442	+0% $539	+5% $636	+10% $734
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $594	base $539	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
733 Luna Ct Lake Orion, MI	3.0	1.5	1177	$2,695	$2.29	20d	1	0.13mi
45 E Jackson St Apt 2 Lake Orion, MI	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	44d	1	0.57mi
784 Porteous Dr Lake Orion, MI	2.0	1.0	875	$1,600	$1.83	44d	1	0.59mi
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,950	$2.77	15d	1	0.64mi
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	1.0	1.0	751	$1,695	$2.26	11d	1	0.64mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$4,850	$2.44	0d	4	0.81mi
711 Kimberly Lake Orion, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	985	$1,149	$1.17	0d	6	1.11mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $214,000 Active 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   ALL OFFERS DUE SATURDAY AT 1PM. Charming, cute, and cozy, this lovely home sits just a short walk from downtown Lake Orion. Thoughtful updates throughout include a new A/C, new hot water tank, new sump pump, and new appliances - washer, dryer, refrigerator, a stove/range with two ovens for the cooks and bakers in your life. The expansive yard offers plenty of room to relax or entertain, highlighted by a new composite deck perfect for summer evenings. A one-car garage with electricity adds convenience and extra storage. A wonderful blend of comfort, updates and location.

2. 2026-05-20
   listed $214,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   ALL OFFERS DUE SATURDAY AT 1PM. Charming, cute, and cozy, this lovely home sits just a short walk from downtown Lake Orion. Thoughtful updates throughout include a new A/C, new hot water tank, new sump pump, and new appliances - washer, dryer, refrigerator, a stove/range with two ovens for the cooks and bakers in your life. The expansive yard offers plenty of room to relax or entertain, highlighted by a new composite deck perfect for summer evenings. A one-car garage with electricity adds convenience and extra storage. A wonderful blend of comfort, updates and location.

3. 2018-05-01
   soldstatus $149,999
4. 2018-04-26
   soldstatus $149,999 Sold 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

5. 2018-04-26
   soldstatus $149,999 Closed

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

6. 2018-03-27
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

7. 2018-03-27
   status Pending 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

8. 2018-03-19
   price $149,999

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

9. 2018-03-19
   price $149,999 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

10. 2018-03-05
    listed $158,900 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

11. 2018-03-05
    listed $158,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED THIS WEEK!!!!!! 3 BEDROOM (3RD BEDROOM IN BASEMENT WITH EGRESS WINDOW), 2 FULL BATH (BOTH UPDATED AND ON MAIN FLOOR), RANCH HOME IS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE (3 MINUTES) OF DOWNTOWN LAKE ORION BUT WITHOUT VILLAGE TAXES. READY TO MOVE IN. HANDICAP ACCESS RAMP, NEWER FURNACE, ROOF AND WINDOWS. 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY. ALL THIS AND AWARD WINNING LAKE ORION SCHOOLS. GREAT FIRST OR EMPTY NESTER HOME.

12. 2008-05-21
    soldstatus $31,000
13. 2007-09-27
    listed $49,900
14. 1997-09-02
    soldstatus $90,500
15. 1997-07-18
    soldstatus $90,500
16. 1997-04-23
    listed $94,900
17. 1992-07-15
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$479/yr (+$40/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$2,337
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable income: $3,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $5,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lake Orion

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #1679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+568.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $214,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Listed $214,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $149,999 Public Records
• 2018-04-26 Sold (MLS) $149,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-26 Sold (MLS) $149,999 REALCOMP
• 2018-03-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2018-03-19 Price Changed $149,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-19 Price Changed $149,999 REALCOMP
• 2018-03-05 Listed $158,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-05 Listed $158,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-05-21 Sold (MLS) $31,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-09-27 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 1997-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1997-07-18 Sold (MLS) $90,500 REALCOMP
• 1997-04-23 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 1992-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,337 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.