Zinnia Plan · Houston, TX 77449

$349,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,501 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Huge walk-in pantry
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• GENEROUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• HUGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $405,890.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-706 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemmenway El (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,151 students, 82% FRL); Thornton Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,397 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,656 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $405,890
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -13.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6426 Wildwood Pines Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,428 (-3%)	2mo	$415,000	$171	88
22702 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,341 (-6%)	2mo	$426,780	$182	82
22734 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,341 (-6%)	3mo	$396,780	$169	81
22722 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,442 (-2%)	4mo	$470,000	$192	80
22611 Elyson Falls Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,675 (+7%)	4mo	$425,000	$159	79
22607 Potterstone Peak Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,274 (-9%)	3mo	$514,555	$226	78
22726 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,190 (-12%)	1mo	$445,000	$203	73
22746 Norcrest Hills Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,190 (-12%)	4mo	$450,000	$205	69
22623 Elyson Falls Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-12%)	4mo	$395,000	$180	64
6623 Barrington Creek Trce	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,496 (-0%)	0mo	$335,000	$134	61
6822 Barrington Creek Trce	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,307 (-8%)	2mo	$357,500	$155	55
5615 Toledo Pines Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,846 (+14%)	1mo	$473,990	$167	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-88,229
• Equity at exit: $92,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-136,645
• Equity at exit: $92,964

Cash invested: $113,649 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,129
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$507 /mo · $6,088/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,551

Max offer price $303,683

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-426	-5% $-566	+0% $-706	+5% $-847	+10% $-987
Rent	-10% $-916	-5% $-811	+0% $-706	+5% $-601	+10% $-496
Rate	-1.0pp $-502	-0.5pp $-603	base $-706	+0.5pp $-812	+1.0pp $-919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,472
• Closing costs: $12,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22700 Elyson Falls Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1658	$2,925	$1.76	1d	1	0.25mi
5710 Fresh View Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,495	$1.08	3d	1	1.12mi
21331 Hartford Hollow Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,500	$0.82	21d	1	1.46mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	1.49mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,990 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,990 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,990 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $349,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $435,990 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,990 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,990 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,990 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,990 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $435,990 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $441,990 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

18. 2026-03-07
    price $437,990 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

19. 2026-02-09
    price $416,380 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

20. 2026-01-10
    price $411,380 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

21. 2026-01-08
    price $409,990 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

22. 2025-11-14
    listed $452,128 Active 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    With 4 bedrooms plus a flex room and a game room, the two-story Zinnia makes masterful use of its square footage. Guests enter through the elegant hallway into the open-concept living and dining area, ideal for entertaining guests and casual family dinners alike. Homeowners will appreciate the generous laundry room with optional sink and cabinets for keeping laundry and cleaning products out of sight. Don't miss the huge walk-in pantry hidden under the stairs. Tucked in the rear of the home, the Primary suite with coffered ceilings serves as a quiet retreat. The Primary bath offers double sinks - add the optional soaking tub for ultimate luxury. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms and a game room, all with coffered ceilings. The gameroom is the perfect spot for a playroom, additional living area, or second home office. Store holiday decorations, games, luggage, and more in the large gameroom closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,736
• − Property taxes: −$6,088
• − Insurance: −$2,029
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − Depreciation: −$11,808
• Taxable loss: −$15,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,812
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $435,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $441,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $437,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $416,380 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $411,380 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $452,128 Zillow