3509 Spring Creek Rd · Dundee, FL 33838

$320,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 315 Days on market

Built 2013 0.27 ac lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

Key facts

• Oversized yard
• Long driveway
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OVERSIZED YARD
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $410 / $34.17 monthly); Association fee required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces southeast; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, screened patio/porch; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Corner lot; Oversized lot; Asphalt road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $179k; list at $321k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,609 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $141,692
• Equity at exit: $289,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $443,191
• Equity at exit: $623,438

Cash invested: $89,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,683
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,228/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,683

Max offer price $229,236

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,225
• Closing costs: $9,627
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	3d	1	0.99mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	23d	1	1.16mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,160	$1.04	3d	1	1.16mi
228 Hillcrest Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,075	$1.08	19d	1	1.33mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	23d	1	1.37mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	1.38mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	3d	1	1.44mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,795	$0.88	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,900 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,900 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,900 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,900 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,900 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,900 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,900 Active 306 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,900 Active 305 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,900 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,900 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,900 Active 299 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,900 Active 298 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,900 Active 297 DOM
14. 2026-01-15
    price $320,900
15. 2025-12-10
    price $340,900
16. 2025-10-09
    price $343,900
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $348,900 Active
18. 2024-07-29
    historical
19. 2024-05-30
    price $344,990
20. 2024-01-29
    listed $349,990 Active
21. 2018-03-13
    soldstatus $179,000
22. 2018-02-28
    soldstatus $179,000 Sold 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

23. 2018-01-26
    status Pending 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

24. 2018-01-19
    price $175,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

25. 2018-01-08
    price $179,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

26. 2017-12-18
    listed $182,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Must see, move in ready home . .. . Features oversized lot, driveway, screened in lanai, mature landscaping, granite counter tops, tile kitchen, dinning room and living room.

27. 2009-01-06
    soldstatus $786,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,228 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,228 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,975
• − Property taxes: −$3,228
• − Insurance: −$1,604
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$9,335
• Taxable loss: −$12,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,911
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-59.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $320,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $340,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $343,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listed $348,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Listed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-28 Sold (MLS) $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-19 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-08 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Listed $182,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $786,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,228 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.