2021 Grand Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1920 4,375 sqft lot $107/sqft · 14% above area Est $131k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated home offering modern finishes and move-in-ready convenience. This property features brand-new flooring throughout, a fully renovated kitchen with new appliances, and completely remodeled bathrooms designed with style and functionality in mind. The electrical service has been recently updated, providing added peace of mind, while fresh paint throughout gives the home a clean, modern feel. Exterior improvements include some new siding, enhancing both curb appeal and durability. A solid opportunity for buyers seeking updated systems and finishes without the hassle of major renovations.

Key facts

• New siding
• New appliances
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEW SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Granite counters; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,364/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $150k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,366 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,143
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 14.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
628 20th St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-5%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	84
451 20th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	71
527 23rd St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+6%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	71
1013 13th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,352 (-3%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	63
1327 Willow Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,444 (+3%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	60
605 29th St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-6%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	54
1870 South Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-6%)	0mo	$116,000	$88	53
435 13th St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	51
554 31st St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,524 (+9%)	2mo	$156,000	$102	50
442 26th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	46
2233 South Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,553 (+11%)	3mo	$155,000	$100	44
3510 Chapin Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,547 (+10%)	4mo	$184,900	$120	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $100,497
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $304,453
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $226	+0% $184	+5% $142	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $130	+0% $184	+5% $238	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $222	base $184	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	23d	1	0.11mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	19d	1	0.15mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	26d	1	0.27mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	46d	1	0.36mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	26d	1	0.36mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	5d	1	0.38mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	5d	1	0.49mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	46d	1	0.54mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	46d	1	0.55mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	46d	1	0.61mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	13d	1	0.66mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	19d	1	0.74mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	4d	1	0.78mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	46d	1	0.84mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	0d	1	0.86mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	0d	1	0.86mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	4d	1	0.87mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	5d	1	1.03mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	17d	1	1.05mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 609-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $149,900 Active 609-char remark
3. 2026-01-29
   historical
4. 2026-01-16
   price $64,900
5. 2026-01-05
   price $69,900
6. 2025-12-17
   listed $74,900 Active
7. 2025-11-25
   soldstatus $52,000
8. 2006-05-11
   soldstatus $67,200
9. 2000-12-06
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$998/yr (+$83/mo · 185.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $2,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $67,200 Public Records
• 2000-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.