102 New Jersey St · Bismarck, ND 58504

$52,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $58k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Ample counter space
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SUNNY LIVING ROOM
• OAK CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Storage shed; Full chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans (cooling); Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Soaking tub; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.3% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jeannette Myhre Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #216 of 236 statewide, top 93%, 254 students, 65% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 19% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bismarck 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,220 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.95%
• DSCR: 4.02
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,240
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Connecticut St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$57,000	$39	88
1119 University Dr #1705	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	0mo	$57,600	$40	79
1119 University Dr #1101	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	0mo	$95,000	$71	73
725 S 12th St #204	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	19mo	$75,000	$52	68
246 Boeing Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-2%)	10mo	$39,000	$27	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $43,813
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $104,660
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $431

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $839	+0% $824	+5% $810	+10% $795
Rent	-10% $708	-5% $766	+0% $824	+5% $883	+10% $941
Rate	-1.0pp $851	-0.5pp $838	base $824	+0.5pp $811	+1.0pp $797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 1/2 S 10th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	22d	1	0.52mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 201-302E Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	22d	1	0.82mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 205-305G Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	22d	1	0.82mi
172 Boise Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	22d	1	0.84mi
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,955	$1.65	22d	19	0.86mi
205 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	22d	1	0.87mi
201 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	22d	1	0.90mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,980	$1.72	22d	12	0.98mi
407 N 12th St Unit 3/4 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	22d	1	1.02mi
2316 E Broadway Ave Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,250	$1.12	22d	1	1.15mi
1543 S Washington St Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	22d	1	1.15mi
2220 East Avenue A Unit 1/2 Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,150	$0.94	22d	1	1.26mi
127 Stuttgart Dr Unit 1 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	22d	1	1.35mi
700 N 22nd St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	22d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $52,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $9,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $7,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Contingent — GNMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $52,000 GNMLS