Duplex
87 Vineyard Ave · Highland, NY
Flood risk 5/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.24%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 11.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.9/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +9.9/10.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Schools +5.2/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$300,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Village of Highland two family w/two bedroom units. Hardwood floors throughout. Separate utilities with natural gas for heat & hot water. Centrally located with easy access to village amenities, commuter routes & Mid-Hudson Bridge. Attractively low taxes. Ideal for investor or owner occupant.
Key facts
- Separate utilities
- Easy access
- Centrally located
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $928 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $464/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
- Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.6% in Highland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#251 in NY, #3,941 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
- Highland Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #227 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Highland Elementary School (math 46% / reading 67%, grade C+, #899 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 638 students, 38% FRL); Highland Middle School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 376 students, 42% FRL); Highland High School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 512 students, 41% FRL).
- Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $100k; list at $300k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.01%
- Cash-on-cash
- 13.26%
- DSCR
- 1.59
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $596,720
- List price
- $300,000
- Delta
- -49.73%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 3.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.13×
- Total profit
- $10,541
- Equity at exit
- $44,731
- IRR
- 12.8%
- Equity multiple
- 2.02×
- Total profit
- $85,397
- Equity at exit
- $25,939
Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 12528
- Home prices YoY
- -20.5%
- Active inventory
- 106
- Price-to-rent
- 13.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,720 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,573
- Tax from tax record
- −$312 /mo · $3,745/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$781
- Net cashflow
- $928
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $1,098 | -5% $1,013 | +0% $928 | +5% $844 | +10% $759 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $635 | -5% $782 | +0% $928 | +5% $1,075 | +10% $1,222 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $1,080 | -0.5pp $1,005 | base $928 | +0.5pp $851 | +1.0pp $772 |
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 2 | 1 | $3,720 |
| #1 | 2 | 1 | $1,860 |
| #2 | 2 | 1 | $1,860 |
| Total (2 units) | $3,720 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $75,000
- Closing costs
- $9,000
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104 North Rd Highland, NY | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1550 | $3,100 | $2.00 | 45d | 1 | 0.99mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $300,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $300,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $300,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $300,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $300,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $300,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $300,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $300,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $300,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $300,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $300,000 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $300,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $300,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $300,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $300,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $300,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-03-23$300,000 Active 302-char remark
Show marketing remark (302 chars)
Village of Highland two family w/two bedroom units. Hardwood floors throughout. Separate utilities with natural gas for heat & hot water. Centrally located with easy access to village amenities, commuter routes & Mid-Hudson Bridge. Attractively low taxes. Ideal for investor or owner occupant.
-
2013-05-17soldstatus $100,000
-
2000-07-11soldstatus $240,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,745 · $312/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,407 · $367/mo
- Expected delta
- +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 17.7%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $44,640
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,805
- − Property taxes
- −$3,745
- − Insurance
- −$1,500
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,571
- − Management
- −$3,571
- − Depreciation
- −$8,727
- Taxable income
- $6,721
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,613
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,529/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Highland Central School District
- NCES district ID
- 3614400
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 69% ▲ 14.00%
- Median HH income
- $63,600
- Composite
- 51.89/100
- National rank
- #1652
- State rank
- #227 of 590 in NY
Livability — Highland
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #251
- US rank
- #3941
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Highland, NY
- Population (ZIP)
- 13,818
Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 175,887 people
- By 2030
- 171,876 · -2.3%
- By 2040
- 161,771 · -8.0%
- By 2050
- 151,470 · -13.9%
- By 2075
- 133,023 · -24.4%
- By 2100
- 113,504 · -35.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (72%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 72% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 6% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Ulster
- 2024 margin
- D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -84.26%
- Current HPI
- 327.3196
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
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| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
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Price history
+25.0% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-23 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2013-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
- 2000-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.6%/yrLatest (2025): $3,745 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…