12740 Little Patrick Rd · Amelia Court House, VA 23002

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2009 1.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, Great Location! One Level 3 bedroom/2 Bathroom Home situated on 1.7 acre lot surrounded by farm views! No Restrictions!

Key facts

• Inviting front porch
• Spacious lot
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• CHARMING PERGOLA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick, frame, drywall, and vinyl siding construction; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One bathroom with tub and shower (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area; Laminate counters; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-95/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Amelia Court House — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#329 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing D, amenities F, commute F.
• Amelia County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amelia County Elementary (math 46% / reading 60%, grade C, #689 of 1,108 statewide, top 63%, 760 students, 85% FRL); Amelia County Middle (math 37% / reading 61%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 365 students, 84% FRL); Amelia County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 538 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 42% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Amelia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amelia County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,159 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,573
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-39,114
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23002

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $263,604

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $67	+0% $-8	+5% $-83	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-86	+0% $-8	+5% $70	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $59	base $-8	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $265,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on marketlisting id $265,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-03
   listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,294/yr (+$108/mo · 147.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amelia County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100180
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,185
• Composite: 46.33/100
• National rank: #2468
• State rank: #83 of 131 in VA

Livability — Amelia Court House

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #12495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,657

Population outlook (Amelia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,928 people
• By 2030: 12,819 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 12,381 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 11,607 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 10,186 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 9,067 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Amelia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.6% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.11%
• Current HPI: 251.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+53.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $265,000 CVRMLS
• 2021-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-14 Sold (MLS) $230,000 CVRMLS
• 2021-11-09 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2021-11-02 Listed $225,000 CVRMLS
• 2012-03-24 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-09-25 Listed $168,500 CVRMLS
• 2011-03-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-10-23 Listed $174,900 CVRMLS
• 2010-07-13 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-01-13 Listed $172,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.