406 S Walnut St · Elmira, NY 14904

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1917 5,662 sqft lot Est $118k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house has been preinspected! It will make a great starter home or rental property for investors. This two-bedroom, one-full-bath house with off-street parking and a shed is conveniently located near city amenities and is move-in ready. The roof was new 7 years ago, and almost every window has been replaced. The exterior needs some work, but the interior is surprisingly nice. Laundry hookup in the upstairs bathroom.

Key facts

• Bonus lot
• Large linen closet
• Built in shelving

Tags

• RENOVATED TURN KEY
• NEW FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• EXTRA PANTRY SHELVING
• LARGE LINEN CLOSET
• BONUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ernie Davis Academy (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #691 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 802 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $120k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 S Walnut St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$122,000	$122	99
405 Balsam St	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,081 (+8%)	5mo	$22,000	$20	78
317 Morrowfield Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,064 (+6%)	4mo	$35,500	$33	70
719 Dubois St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$119	69
628 Decker Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,062 (+6%)	3mo	$125,000	$118	68
614 Chester St	0.19mi	2/1.0	875 (-12%)	4mo	$112,765	$129	67
212 Austin Ln	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+6%)	10mo	$57,447	$54	59
763 Chester St	0.40mi	2/1.0	864 (-14%)	4mo	$117,000	$135	55
300 S Hoffman St	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	871 (-13%)	7mo	$60,000	$69	53
635 Newtown St	0.69mi	2/1.0	913 (-9%)	8mo	$123,500	$135	46
515 Stacia Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-9%)	7mo	$92,000	$101	44
890 Holdridge St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+10%)	9mo	$129,900	$118	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,248
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $27,793
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $366	+0% $325	+5% $283	+10% $242
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $267	+0% $325	+5% $382	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $385	-0.5pp $355	base $325	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	0.16mi
550 Spruce St Unit 202 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	45d	1	0.57mi
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	0.57mi
800 Broadway St Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	45d	1	0.63mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	45d	1	0.66mi
808 Winsor Ave Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.71mi
752 S Main St Unit 2 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	841	$995	$1.18	45d	1	0.76mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	45d	1	0.88mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	45d	1	0.91mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.07mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	45d	1	1.23mi
1210 W Water St Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,995	$1.49	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-19
   status Active
4. 2026-02-11
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-12-10
   listed $120,000 Active
6. 2025-12-10
   historical
7. 2025-11-06
   listed $120,000 Active
8. 2024-11-18
   soldstatus $47,500 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   This house has been preinspected! It will make a great starter home or rental property for investors. This two-bedroom, one-full-bath house with off-street parking and a shed is conveniently located near city amenities and is move-in ready. The roof was new 7 years ago, and almost every window has been replaced. The exterior needs some work, but the interior is surprisingly nice. Laundry hookup in the upstairs bathroom.

9. 2024-11-18
   soldstatus $47,500

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   This house has been preinspected! It will make a great starter home or rental property for investors. This two-bedroom, one-full-bath house with off-street parking and a shed is conveniently located near city amenities and is move-in ready. The roof was new 7 years ago, and almost every window has been replaced. The exterior needs some work, but the interior is surprisingly nice. Laundry hookup in the upstairs bathroom.

10. 2024-03-28
    listed $54,900 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    This house has been preinspected! It will make a great starter home or rental property for investors. This two-bedroom, one-full-bath house with off-street parking and a shed is conveniently located near city amenities and is move-in ready. The roof was new 7 years ago, and almost every window has been replaced. The exterior needs some work, but the interior is surprisingly nice. Laundry hookup in the upstairs bathroom.

11. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus $12,500
12. 2007-06-12
    listed $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$506
• After-tax cash flow: $3,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+306.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2024-11-18 Sold (MLS) $47,500 UNYREIS
• 2024-03-28 Listed $54,900 UNYREIS
• 2007-09-21 Sold (MLS) $12,500 UNYREIS
• 2007-06-12 Listed $29,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $224 · -69.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.