3209 Wickham Ln · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 4,800 sqft lot $160/sqft · 15% below area Est $322k · 15% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

A prime Austin opportunity that checks the boxes for both homeowners and investors alike. Conveniently located with quick access to Highway 183, Highway 71, and I-35, this property offers an ideal balance of comfort, accessibility, and future potential. Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is just minutes away, making travel and commuting incredibly convenient. Homeowners will love the established neighborhood feel combined with easy access to downtown Austin, shopping, dining, entertainment, and major employers. The home offers comfortable living spaces and a functional layout perfect for everyday living or future personalization. Investors will immediately recognize the value of this lo

Key facts

• Quick access to i-35
• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 183
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 71
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-35
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN AUSTIN
• PROXIMITY TO KEY HIGHWAYS
• PROXIMITY TO EMPLOYMENT HUBS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Austin's Colony; HOA fee $60 quarterly; HOA covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (covered); 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northwest; Resale property
• Construction: Built (year sourced from public records); Stone and vinyl siding construction; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Back yard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vinyl window features; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 222% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,994 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,470
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -14.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14511 Amy Francis St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-3%)	2mo	$259,000	$156	78
3307 Etheredge Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,586 (-8%)	7mo	$267,500	$169	69
14601 Fitzgibbon Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-3%)	9mo	$285,000	$171	66
14500 Deaf Smith Blvd	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,528 (-11%)	7mo	$295,000	$193	64
3112 Tilmon Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,795 (+4%)	6mo	$312,990	$174	63
14505 Sandifer St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (-12%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	50
3305 Tilmon Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-12%)	8mo	$275,000	$181	50
3605 Pevetoe St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-12%)	8mo	$235,000	$156	48
3606 Chappie Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-12%)	4mo	$285,000	$188	44
3609 Mims Cv	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,467 (-15%)	8mo	$275,000	$187	44
15100 Custis Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-15%)	4mo	$279,999	$191	41
15000 Retha Pass	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-15%)	9mo	$296,000	$202	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,771
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-102,617
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,199/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $230,499

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-96	-5% $-174	+0% $-252	+5% $-330	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-336	+0% $-252	+5% $-168	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-182	base $-252	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	0.02mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	5d	1	0.10mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	23d	1	0.13mi
3407 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2093	$1,995	$0.95	25d	1	0.13mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	45d	1	0.35mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	45d	1	0.40mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	3d	1	0.40mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	45d	1	0.41mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.43mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	25d	1	0.43mi
14912 Hartsmith Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,399	$1.12	45d	1	0.47mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	45d	1	0.50mi
14908 Ben Davis Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2029	$1,995	$0.98	17d	1	0.52mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	25d	1	0.58mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	25d	1	0.68mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	45d	1	0.71mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	45d	1	0.74mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	25d	1	0.79mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.79mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	45d	1	0.80mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.88mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	23d	1	0.88mi
601 Silver Wing Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,100	$1.05	45d	1	0.90mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	23d	1	0.91mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	25d	1	0.97mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	45d	1	0.99mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	45d	1	1.03mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	3d	1	1.04mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	1.19mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	1.19mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	5d	1	1.32mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	1.32mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	12d	1	1.40mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $275,000 Active 1300-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $275,000 Active 278-char remark
4. 2026-02-12
   price
5. 2025-10-10
   listed Active
6. 2025-09-26
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-08-29
   listed Active
8. 2020-07-08
   status Pending
9. 2020-07-03
   listed Active
10. 2012-03-21
    soldstatus
11. 2011-12-19
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2011-11-10
    status Pending
13. 2011-11-08
    status Active
14. 2011-11-03
    status Pending
15. 2011-10-29
    listed $85,500 Active
16. 2011-10-28
    historical Expired
17. 2011-10-27
    status Active
18. 2011-08-17
    status Pending
19. 2011-08-09
    price
20. 2011-06-25
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$833/yr (+$69/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,199
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,884
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-26 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-07-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-07-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2012-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-19 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2011-11-10 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2011-11-08 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-11-03 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2011-10-29 Listed $85,500 Unlock MLS
• 2011-10-28 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-10-27 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2011-08-17 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2011-08-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2011-06-25 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,199 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.