407 Hinckley Blvd · Vandercook Lake, MI 49203

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 3,485 sqft lot $218/sqft · 57% above area Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this cozy and inviting 4 bedroom 1.5 bath home located in Summit Township, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! Inside, you will find an open concept layout with durable vinyl flooring and a spacious kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The fully fenced backyard and back deck provide great space for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Located close to highway access and restaurants, this home makes commuting and everyday errands a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Highway access
• Back deck

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• BACK DECK
• HIGHWAY ACCESS
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; Built in 1920
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.08-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Vandercook Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#407 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vandercook Lake Public Schools (suburban): math 14% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #461 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $170k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,645 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,577
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 0.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Cove St	0.16mi	2/1.0	750 (-4%)	1mo	$115,000	$153	85
200 Cass Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	830 (+6%)	12mo	$140,000	$169	68
304 Meyers Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	800 (+3%)	17mo	$137,000	$171	67
111 E Bird St	0.23mi	2/1.0	748 (-4%)	19mo	$120,000	$160	67
503 W Vandercook Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0	699 (-10%)	5mo	$58,500	$84	66
313 W Vandercook Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	704 (-10%)	15mo	$123,000	$175	60
508 E Mcdevitt Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	722 (-7%)	15mo	$112,500	$156	56
509 E Bird St	0.40mi	2/1.0	893 (+14%)	3mo	$156,000	$175	55
705 E Bird St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	856 (+10%)	1mo	$135,900	$159	54
912 Gerald Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	742 (-5%)	10mo	$135,000	$182	49
305 Hudson Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	837 (+7%)	20mo	$126,000	$151	41
120 Lakeview Ter	0.73mi	2/2.0	870 (+12%)	11mo	$156,287	$180	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-33,181
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,630
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49203

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $139,298

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $170,000 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Don't miss this cozy and inviting 4 bedroom 1.5 bath home located in Summit Township, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! Inside, you will find an open concept layout with durable vinyl flooring and a spacious kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The fully fenced backyard and back deck provide great space for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Located close to highway access and restaurants, this home makes commuting and everyday errands a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $170,000 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Don't miss this cozy and inviting 4 bedroom 1.5 bath home located in Summit Township, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! Inside, you will find an open concept layout with durable vinyl flooring and a spacious kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The fully fenced backyard and back deck provide great space for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Located close to highway access and restaurants, this home makes commuting and everyday errands a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-05-12
    listed $170,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    Don't miss this cozy and inviting 4 bedroom 1.5 bath home located in Summit Township, offering the perfect blend of comfort and convenience! Inside, you will find an open concept layout with durable vinyl flooring and a spacious kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living areas. The fully fenced backyard and back deck provide great space for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. Located close to highway access and restaurants, this home makes commuting and everyday errands a breeze. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2018-06-26
    soldstatus $78,724
22. 2018-06-21
    soldstatus $78,724
23. 2018-06-21
    soldstatus $78,724
24. 2018-05-04
    listed $78,000
25. 2018-05-04
    listed $78,000
26. 2011-10-31
    soldstatus $3,500
27. 2011-10-31
    soldstatus $3,500
28. 2011-10-13
    historical
29. 2011-06-09
    listed $16,600
30. 2011-06-09
    listed $16,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 43.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vandercook Lake Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634650
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,708
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9015
• State rank: #461 of 540 in MI

Livability — Vandercook Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #11117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vandercook Lake, MI
• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,474
• Household income: $56,201
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1383.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.09%
• Current HPI: 211.5474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.54%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+924.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $170,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $170,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $170,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $78,724 Public Records
• 2018-06-21 Sold (MLS) $78,724 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-06-21 Sold (MLS) $78,724 REALCOMP
• 2018-05-04 Listed $78,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $78,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-31 Sold (MLS) $3,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-10-31 Sold (MLS) $3,500 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-09 Listed $16,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-09 Listed $16,600 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.