18 Squires Ave · Hampton Bays, NY 11942

$1,695,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1996 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your Hamptons retreat in the heart of East Quogue. This beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and effortless indoor-outdoor living. Set on a private and beautifully landscaped property, the home is designed for both relaxed summer living and year-round enjoyment. Sun-drenched interiors feature spacious living and entertaining areas, a well-equipped kitchen, and generously sized bedrooms with comfortable accommodations throughout. Outside, multiple entertaining spaces surround the sparkling pool and spa, creating a true resort-style setting ideal for hosting or unwinding in complete privacy. Perfectly located just minutes from pri

Key facts

• Turnkey home
• Spa
• Resort style setting

Tags

• PRIVATE LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• MULTIPLE ENTERTAINING SPACES
• SPA
• RESORT STYLE SETTING
• TURNKEY HOME

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with one garage space
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Front and rear sprinkler system; Private in-ground vinyl pool (fenced); On-site spa

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Seven total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; Finished full basement with walk-out access; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.57M (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.57M (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $51k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $555k; list at $1.70M implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,568,004 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $943,452
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Foxboro Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+4%)	4mo	$951,000	$636	84
3 Chestnut Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-8%)	16mo	$869,000	$657	62
6 Sanderling Ln	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,462 (+2%)	9mo	$1,375,000	$940	61
7 Oakwood Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	14mo	$795,000	$612	59
22 Shinnecock Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (-6%)	8mo	$865,000	$638	58
7 Evergreen Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,486 (+4%)	12mo	$989,000	$666	56
10 Rolling Hill Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	13mo	$1,095,000	$782	56
27 Norwood Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+2%)	17mo	$919,999	$627	55
89 Bellows Ter	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+13%)	12mo	$1,260,000	$778	42
6 Whiting Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	14mo	$899,000	$692	40
3 Evergreen Ct	0.56mi	3/4.0	1,594 (+11%)	13mo	$945,000	$593	36
7 Homewood Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+11%)	20mo	$865,000	$544	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-135,396
• Equity at exit: $252,730

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $59,487
• Equity at exit: $146,553

Cash invested: $474,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax from tax record: −$595 /mo · $7,135/yr
• Insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,293
• Net cashflow: $2,198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,898

Max offer price $1,695,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $423,750
• Closing costs: $50,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	43d	1	0.17mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	43d	1	0.38mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	10d	1	0.39mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	17d	1	0.40mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	0.63mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	43d	1	0.68mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	0.68mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	0.86mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	43d	1	0.97mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	24d	1	1.39mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	1.42mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	43d	1	1.43mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $1,695,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,695,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-05-17
   listed $1,695,000 Active
9. 2025-07-27
   historical $20,000
10. 2025-06-29
    listed $20,000
11. 2005-08-31
    soldstatus $555,000
12. 1987-03-04
    soldstatus $182,500
13. 1986-03-07
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,135 · $595/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,890 · $1,491/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,755/yr (+$896/mo · 150.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $188,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,946
• − Property taxes: −$7,135
• − Insurance: −$8,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,053
• − Management: −$15,053
• − Depreciation: −$49,309
• Taxable loss: −$1,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $26,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• City population: 15,819
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3752.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Rental Removed $20,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-06-29 Listed for Rent $20,000 ONEKEY
• 2005-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $555,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 1986-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,135 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.