1027 Brighton Orchards Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$229,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,523 sqft lot $126/sqft · 21% below area Est $292k · 21% under $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1027 Brighton Orchards Lane in the charming Magnolia Ridge community. This exquisite Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 & 1/2 baths, providing ample space for comfortable living. With 1826 square feet of living space and a generous lot size of 5558 square feet, this home is perfect for families looking for a spacious retreat. Built in 2021, this property offers modern amenities and a convenient location. Contact me today to schedule a viewing of this remarkable home in Magnolia Ridge.

Key facts

• 5,523 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,860 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,217
• List price: $229,500
• Delta: -21.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 Brighton Orchards Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,826 (0%)	2mo	$250,000	$137	96
705 Autumn Lake Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,920 (+5%)	1mo	$350,000	$182	70
707 Hackberry Branch Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,732 (-5%)	1mo	$274,990	$159	69
338 Prairie Warbler St	0.39mi	4/3.0	1,942 (+6%)	2mo	$360,900	$186	67
582 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,914 (+5%)	2mo	$297,990	$156	67
306 Prairie Warbler St	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,984 (+9%)	0mo	$364,900	$184	61
232 Ashley Branch St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-2%)	1mo	$291,990	$164	61
236 Country Crossing Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,871 (+2%)	1mo	$264,999	$142	57
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	51
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-12%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	45
715 Michelia St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-13%)	2mo	$285,990	$180	44
158 Piney Pathway	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,053 (+12%)	2mo	$283,000	$138	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $96,339
• Equity at exit: $206,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $293,306
• Equity at exit: $445,868

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$600 /mo · $7,204/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,465

Max offer price $163,860

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	4d	1	0.23mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	21d	1	0.27mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	21d	1	0.30mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	0.47mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	43d	1	0.47mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$2,016	$0.87	4d	1	0.60mi
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	24d	1	0.63mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	43d	1	0.77mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	24d	1	0.89mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	43d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,500 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,500 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,500 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,500 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,500 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,500 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $229,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-03-21
    listed $249,900 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Welcome to 1027 Brighton Orchards Lane in the charming Magnolia Ridge community. This exquisite Single-Family property boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 & 1/2 baths, providing ample space for comfortable living. With 1826 square feet of living space and a generous lot size of 5558 square feet, this home is perfect for families looking for a spacious retreat. Built in 2021, this property offers modern amenities and a convenient location. Contact me today to schedule a viewing of this remarkable home in Magnolia Ridge.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,204 · $600/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,204 · $600/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$7,204
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$8,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia Ridge is in good condition with modern amenities and a spacious layout. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $249,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,204 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.