16 Lily Ln · Big Bass Lake, PA 18424

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bath modern ranch tucked away in the desirable Thornhurst Country Club Estates. Designed with clean lines and contemporary finishes, this home offers effortless one-floor living with the added bonus of a fully finished basement--perfect for entertaining, a home gym, or additional living space.

Key facts

• One-floor living
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Listed 13 days

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ONE-FLOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available through external link
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (amount excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No HOA or community fee information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area around 1,800; Basement (finished)
• Exterior features: Lot in Country Club Estates subdivision; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 50; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Information on specific bedroom count or levels not provided
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heat
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished basement; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-528/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Big Bass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#763 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $235k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $200,000 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,478
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -1.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Elderberry Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,828 (+2%)	7mo	$235,000	$129	82
20 Floral Dr	0.16mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-4%)	6mo	$226,497	$131	75
233 Nadine Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-9%)	11mo	$178,000	$109	66
44 Magnolia Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	7mo	$285,000	$168	64
50 Hagen Run Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	1,963 (+9%)	17mo	$150,000	$76	58
44 Magnolia Unit L 431	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	20mo	$125,000	$74	53
24 Cedar Ln	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,989 (+10%)	15mo	$235,000	$118	47
27 Magnolia Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+12%)	20mo	$220,000	$109	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $100,918
• Equity at exit: $185,861

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $295,414
• Equity at exit: $376,146

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18424

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $228,628

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Magnolia Dr Gouldsboro, PA	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,000	$1.26	13d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 332-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $235,000 Active 332-char remark
3. 2026-03-24
   price $230,000
4. 2025-06-25
   price $239,900
5. 2011-01-31
   soldstatus $130,000
6. 2008-04-21
   soldstatus $84,455
7. 2005-08-02
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,090
• After-tax cash flow: $561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Big Bass Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #7622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,076

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 399.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+135.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $235,000 LCAR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $230,000 LCAR
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $239,900 LCAR
• 2011-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $84,455 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $43,503 · +967.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.