457 Cr 3816 · Bullard, TX 75757

$139,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot $87/sqft · 55% above area ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story manufactured (mobile) home; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Composition roof; Satellite dish

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning; Central electric heating; Electric oven and electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.5% in Bullard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in TX, #3,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 54.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $11,334
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $53,420
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,227/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $139,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-04-28
   listed $149,000 Active
10. 2005-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,317/yr (+$110/mo · 107.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,227
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $4,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $5,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bullard

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #3180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $139,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $149,000 GTAR
• 2005-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,227 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.