5304 Oakcrest Dr · Arnold, MO 63052

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1955 1.07 ac lot $164/sqft · 26% below area $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3 bed, 1.5 bath mult-level home with partially finished walkout basement on approx 1 acre. Home has an estimated 1500sf of living area. Kitchen has newer 42" cabinets with solid surface countertops, newer flooring, and recent paint. HVAC and water heater are newer. Some other work is needed to make this a great home. This is a must See Home! An AGENT MUST BE PRESENT FOR ALL SHOWINGS. Do not Trespass.

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.68%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,279
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -50.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5332 Darkmoor Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	966 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$233	72
5005 Owls Nest Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+3%)	3mo	$269,900	$260	68
3209 White Pine Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (+2%)	3mo	$258,000	$251	68
3128 White Pine Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (+1%)	5mo	$279,900	$274	68
3247 White Pine Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,026 (+2%)	1mo	$279,900	$273	64
5041 Country Valley Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	960 (-5%)	3mo	$289,999	$302	61
2467 Waterfront Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$271	61
2503 Waterfront Ct	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,014 (+1%)	5mo	$279,900	$276	56
5023 Country Manor Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	960 (-5%)	8mo	$200,000	$208	55
5004 Sandpiper Ct	0.59mi	3/1.5	864 (-14%)	6mo	$185,000	$214	42
2476 Waterfront Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	1mo	$249,900	$217	39
1744 Hilltop Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	864 (-14%)	4mo	$215,000	$249	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,913
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $17,324
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63052

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3958 Ryan Rd Arnold, MO	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,856	$1.36	8d	1	0.72mi
2714 Cherry Brook Dr Arnold, MO	3.0	3.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	44d	1	0.81mi
3900 Cherry Brook Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.5	1220	$1,275	$1.05	3d	1	0.86mi
3865 Crest Circle Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,300	$1.57	2d	1	0.95mi
3409 5 Oaks Ct Arnold, MO	4.0	2.5	1080	$2,145	$1.99	20d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $164,900 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $164,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $164,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-05-01
   price $164,900 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Spacious 3 bed, 1.5 bath mult-level home with partially finished walkout basement on approx 1 acre. Home has an estimated 1500sf of living area. Kitchen has newer 42" cabinets with solid surface countertops, newer flooring, and recent paint. HVAC and water heater are newer. Some other work is needed to make this a great home. This is a must See Home! An AGENT MUST BE PRESENT FOR ALL SHOWINGS. Do not Trespass.

5. 2026-03-31
   listed $174,900 Active 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Spacious 3 bed, 1.5 bath mult-level home with partially finished walkout basement on approx 1 acre. Home has an estimated 1500sf of living area. Kitchen has newer 42" cabinets with solid surface countertops, newer flooring, and recent paint. HVAC and water heater are newer. Some other work is needed to make this a great home. This is a must See Home! An AGENT MUST BE PRESENT FOR ALL SHOWINGS. Do not Trespass.

6. 2021-10-12
   soldstatus
7. 2021-05-05
   soldstatus
8. 2018-05-25
   soldstatus
9. 2015-07-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $942
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$226
• After-tax cash flow: $3,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,712
• Household income: $92,922
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 333.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.31%
• Current HPI: 196.6159
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $164,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $174,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.