2003 Larkhall Rd · Dundalk, MD 21222

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1956 3,796 sqft lot Est $178k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come check out this lovely remodeled home for less than the price of rent. This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bath with a custom kitchen as it's focal point. When you walk into your new home enjoy all new recessed lighting in a fully custom trey ceilings. The kitchen in this home feature all new stainless applainces with new cabinets, quartz countertops and a lovely tile backsplash. The first floor bump out gives you bonus living space which also leads to your full fenced in back yard and off street gated parking pad. The upper level features 3 bedrooms with all brand new carpet and also one full bathroom that has been fully redone. This home is ready for a new owner today.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Stainless appliances
• New cabinets

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• FULLY CUSTOM TREY CEILINGS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.1% in Dundalk — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Plains Elementary (math 5% / reading 9%, grade F, #726 of 860 statewide, top 86%, 538 students, 79% FRL); General John Stricker Middle (math 4% / reading 29%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 745 students, 70% FRL); Patapsco High And Center For Arts (math 7% / reading 37%, grade F, #171 of 222 statewide, top 78%, 1,312 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 39% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $200k implies a 1450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,757 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8339 Kavanagh Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,016 (-1%)	3mo	$240,000	$236	87
2023 Larkhall Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	14mo	$200,000	$195	87
2041 Jasmine Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	13mo	$162,000	$158	84
1922 Codd Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,024 (0%)	10mo	$177,800	$174	68
8333 Kavanagh Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	896 (-12%)	2mo	$177,000	$198	67
8028 Kavanagh	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,024 (0%)	6mo	$167,000	$163	67
8435 Kavanagh Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-12%)	8mo	$115,000	$128	62
8429 Kavanagh	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+9%)	11mo	$172,500	$154	62
7928 Kavanagh Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (0%)	3mo	$256,000	$250	58
1943 Inverton Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-12%)	15mo	$141,001	$157	54
1927 Codd Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+12%)	8mo	$190,000	$166	52
7829 Scholar Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+12%)	2mo	$252,500	$219	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,036
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,692
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21222

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $293	+0% $237	+5% $180	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $160	+0% $237	+5% $313	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $288	base $237	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Larkhall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.05mi
2025 Kelmore Rd Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	45d	1	0.08mi
1925 Jasmine Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,825	$1.78	12d	1	0.10mi
2032 Kelmore Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,700	$1.66	45d	1	0.11mi
8499 Lynch Rd Dundalk, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,769	$1.97	0d	31	0.26mi
1930 Frames Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,099	$1.82	6d	1	0.35mi
11 Seabright Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	948	$1,874	$1.98	16d	1	0.40mi
1922 Ewald Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,150	$1.53	0d	1	0.40mi
2020 Dineen Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1258	$1,850	$1.47	6d	1	0.45mi
7962 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,947	$1.90	16d	1	0.57mi
7901 Stratman Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,647	$1.85	4d	1	0.62mi
7930 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,200	$2.15	0d	1	0.63mi
7917 Wise Ave Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	25d	1	0.66mi
1610 Melbourne Rd Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	664	$1,240	$1.87	14d	1	0.71mi
8146 Del Haven Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,700	$1.90	18d	1	0.75mi
7412 Saint Patricia Ct Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1024	$2,800	$2.73	19d	1	0.82mi
7805 Saint Patricia Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,850	$1.81	0d	1	0.89mi
4004 Saint Monica Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,925	$1.88	6d	1	0.93mi
4004 St Monica Dr Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,850	$1.81	0d	1	0.93mi
7860 Saint Claire Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,200	$2.15	6d	1	0.97mi
7860 Saint Bridget Ln Dundalk, MD	4.0	1.0	1216	$2,300	$1.89	25d	1	1.00mi
8252 Longpoint Rd Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1216	$1,950	$1.60	5d	1	1.04mi
8252 Longpoint Rd Dundalk, MD	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,050	$1.69	18d	1	1.04mi
7851 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,595	$1.56	45d	1	1.06mi
7863 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	6d	1	1.08mi
8220 Cornwall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,775	$1.58	45d	1	1.09mi
1915 Merritt Blvd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	45d	1	1.13mi
414 Westfield Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,300	$2.25	45d	1	1.17mi
7718 Meath Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	45d	1	1.22mi
3000 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	717	$1,335	$1.86	0d	31	1.26mi
3221 Wallford Dr Unit 3221 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	6d	1	1.27mi
3221 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	5d	1	1.27mi
3413 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1016	$2,000	$1.97	45d	1	1.29mi
3314 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	16d	1	1.31mi
433 Oakwood Rd Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,900	$1.87	0d	1	1.31mi
3503 Sollers Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	776	$1,850	$2.38	14d	1	1.33mi
3427 North Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,250	$2.23	21d	1	1.35mi
3317 Belsford Ct Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,950	$1.55	12d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-03
   historical $1,995
2. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2026-04-02
   listed $1,995
5. 1972-06-29
   soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,061 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 59,407
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 59,407
• Household income: $64,141
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2566.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.44%
• Current HPI: 228.4218
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-84.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Rental Removed $1,995 TENANTCLOUD
• 2026-04-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed for Rent $1,995 TENANTCLOUD
• 1972-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · -23.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.