1104 15th St SE · Paris, TX 75460

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1930 6,360 sqft lot Est $144k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3 bed 1 bath house is located near downtown Paris Tx. It is the perfect location and just a short drive to enjoy all of the events that happen downtown and you get to enjoy all the wonderful Restaurant's while you are there. This house also includes a beautiful front porch where you can drink your coffee in the mornings and feel the nice morning breeze. It will be a corner lot, the house is white with front covered front porch. Next door will be a new house built next to it.

Key facts

• 6,360 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Gravel parking
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1930; Wood construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level) — two primary bedrooms approx. 13 x 13 and one bedroom approx. 10 x 10
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Five total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room with space for freezer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.41%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1070 15th St SE	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,414 (+4%)	5mo	$31,400	$22	84
718 12th St SE	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+6%)	3mo	$65,000	$45	73
1735 Bella Vis	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,393 (+2%)	10mo	$199,900	$144	68
2121 Cedar St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+2%)	9mo	$150,000	$108	66
2131 Hubbard St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,369 (+1%)	4mo	$95,000	$69	59
670 SE 22nd St SE	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-3%)	11mo	$159,500	$121	58
2025 Cedar St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+14%)	4mo	$164,500	$106	52
2440 Cleveland	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,399 (+3%)	11mo	$149,900	$107	49
2252 Cleveland St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,508 (+11%)	10mo	$139,900	$93	40
2430 Culbertson St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-10%)	7mo	$135,000	$110	40
351 NE 6th St NE	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,480 (+9%)	9mo	$90,000	$61	40
1347 E Houston St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (+13%)	2mo	$79,000	$51	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $19,219
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $60,151
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,590/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $553	+0% $528	+5% $502	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $469	+0% $528	+5% $586	+10% $644
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $550	base $528	+0.5pp $505	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2121 Cedar St Paris, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,000	$1.43	44d	1	0.40mi
2246 Simpson St Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1508	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.57mi
649 E Price St Paris, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.91mi
370 29th St NE Paris, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	44d	1	1.34mi
3215 Clarksville St Paris, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	895	$1,395	$1.56	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    status Active
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,590 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,590
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $5,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $109,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,590 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.