448 W 19th St · Erie, PA 16502

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 376 Days on market

Built 1882 3,899 sqft lot $69/sqft · 25% below area Est $94k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, one bathroom blank canvas. Electric already ran, studs already in place. No gas hooked up, water needs connected from the street

Key facts

• 3,899 sq ft lot
• Built 1882
• Listed 375 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pfeiffer-Burleigh Sch (math 7% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,396 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.38%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,810
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -25.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
545 W 16th St	0.21mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (+11%)	8mo	$91,000	$81	60
2421 Plum St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+9%)	0mo	$159,900	$145	56
906 W 18th St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+9%)	7mo	$68,177	$62	55
2677 Cherry St	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	9mo	$75,000	$78	54
904 W 26th St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+3%)	8mo	$60,300	$58	54
2673 Poplar St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+2%)	20mo	$127,000	$123	48
556 W 29 St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+13%)	3mo	$152,000	$133	46
2413 Plum St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+13%)	20mo	$135,000	$118	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $10,896
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $38,106
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $369	+0% $349	+5% $329	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $307	+0% $349	+5% $392	+10% $434
Rate	-1.0pp $385	-0.5pp $367	base $349	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	46d	1	0.34mi
2619 Liberty St Apt 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	47d	1	0.62mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	46d	1	0.63mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	46d	1	0.63mi
440 W 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	46d	1	0.69mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	46d	1	0.83mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	46d	1	0.94mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	46d	1	1.12mi
16 W 5th St Apt 504 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1072	$2,499	$2.33	46d	1	1.14mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	46d	1	1.17mi
407 E 13th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	46d	1	1.18mi
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	46d	1	1.19mi
305 Cascade St Unit 305 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	46d	1	1.25mi
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	46d	1	1.32mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	46d	1	1.40mi
612 E 14th St #1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	775	$850	$1.10	46d	1	1.42mi
626 E 23rd St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $70,000 Active 376 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 375 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 373 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 372 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 371 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 370 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 369 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 367 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 366 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $70,000 Active 364 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 358 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 357 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 356 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 355 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 354 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 353 DOM
20. 2025-06-12
    listed $70,000 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Three bedroom, one bathroom blank canvas. Electric already ran, studs already in place. No gas hooked up, water needs connected from the street

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$788
• After-tax cash flow: $3,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Listed $70,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,244 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.