126 Lost Creek Trl · Abilene, TX 79602

$259,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $254k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21283233 - Built by NHC - Jun 2026 completion! ~ Model 2001 B1 - Shenandoah The Shenandoah Plan from our Freedom Series combines functional design with ample space, making it perfect for families of all sizes. This 2-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a spacious loft, and 2,001 square feet of versatile living space. Step inside and you’ll first discover a flex room, ideal for a home office, playroom, or hobby space. Continuing down the hallway, a conveniently located half bathroom provides added ease for guests. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen, complete with an island, overlooks the dining area and family room, creating the perfect setting for family

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated; Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered parking space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family home; Two-story; New construction (incomplete, 2025)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; New construction (2025)
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Subdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet); Three upstairs bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Two living areas; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections (standard laundry utilities)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alcorta El (math 35% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 451 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,377/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 338% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,127
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Polasek Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	0mo	$260,990	$130	95
132 Dotty Lou	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,001 (0%)	3mo	$245,490	$123	93
220 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,002 (0%)	3mo	$237,280	$119	92
150 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-10%)	3mo	$232,600	$129	76
126 Dotty Lou	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,802 (-10%)	3mo	$229,267	$127	76
209 Coyote Crk	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,203 (+10%)	1mo	$258,990	$118	71
3510 Silver Springs Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,203 (+10%)	1mo	$277,990	$126	70
3533 Silver Springs Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	1mo	$258,877	$144	64
217 Coyote Creek Ct	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	1mo	$262,990	$146	63
3517 Water Ridge Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-10%)	1mo	$222,211	$123	63
141 Coyote Creek Ct	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (-10%)	0mo	$262,990	$146	61
133 Coyote Creek Ct	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,203 (+10%)	1mo	$279,990	$127	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $31,263
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $180,120
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $259,990

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Sayles Blvd Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2384	$6,000	$2.52	13d	1	1.23mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3533 Grand Ave Abilene, TX	5.0	2.0	1629	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	1.41mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	1.45mi
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $259,990 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,990 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,990 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,990 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $259,990 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $259,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,242
• − Management: −$3,242
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable income: $6,716
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $8,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a spacious living area. The exterior and landscaping are also in good condition, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $259,990 NTREIS