438 Silver River Rd · Gholson, TX 76705

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2001 0.54 ac lot $124/sqft · 47% below area Est $337k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home, boasting 1456 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious .54 acre lot. The home features a sturdy metal roof, durable Hardie plank siding, New Anderson Windows installed throughout and energy-efficient solar panels, ensuring long-term sustainability. Step outside and enjoy a front deck perfect for relaxing and entertaining. A lovely gazebo provides additional outdoor entertainment, The property includes a one-car carport for convenience, outdoor space for gardening or recreation, as well as a storage shed, perfect for keeping tools, outdoor equipment, or extra belongings. Inside, you'll be greeted by an open floor plan that seamlessly blends the living and dining areas with the kitchen. The kitchen is highlighted by a large island, offering plenty of counter space for meal prep and entertaining. A separate utility room adds to the home's functionality. The master bedroom is generously sized and isolated for privacy, providing a peaceful retreat. The ensuite master bathroom features a spacious layout for maximum comfort, features dual vanities, separate shower and tub for your personal enjoyment. Don't miss the chance to own this beautifully maintained home country home in Gholson, TX.

Key facts

• Hardie plank siding
• Metal roof
• Front deck

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HARDIE PLANK SIDING
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• SOLAR PANELS
• FRONT DECK
• GAZEBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in Gholson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#713 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gholson ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #701 of 1,141 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,288 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.22%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,625
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -46.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Fox Glenn Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-4%)	20mo	$280,000	$199	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-29,757
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,063
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $180,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-02-21
    listed $225,000 Active 1280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1280 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home, boasting 1456 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious .54 acre lot. The home features a sturdy metal roof, durable Hardie plank siding, New Anderson Windows installed throughout and energy-efficient solar panels, ensuring long-term sustainability. Step outside and enjoy a front deck perfect for relaxing and entertaining. A lovely gazebo provides additional outdoor entertainment, The property includes a one-car carport for convenience, outdoor space for gardening or recreation, as well as a storage shed, perfect for keeping tools, outdoor equipment, or extra belongings. Inside, you'll be greeted by an open floor plan that seamlessly blends the living and dining areas with the kitchen. The kitchen is highlighted by a large island, offering plenty of counter space for meal prep and entertaining. A separate utility room adds to the home's functionality. The master bedroom is generously sized and isolated for privacy, providing a peaceful retreat. The ensuite master bathroom features a spacious layout for maximum comfort, features dual vanities, separate shower and tub for your personal enjoyment. Don't miss the chance to own this beautifully maintained home country home in Gholson, TX.

18. 2026-02-15
    historical
19. 2025-12-26
    price $174,999
20. 2025-10-21
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2025-09-26
    historical
22. 2025-07-31
    listed $175,000 Active
23. 2025-07-01
    historical
24. 2025-02-10
    listed $175,000 Active
25. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus
26. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus
27. 2022-03-22
    listed $140,000
28. 2017-09-19
    soldstatus
29. 2002-04-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,424/yr (+$202/mo · 278.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$2,402
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gholson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820610
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,477
• Composite: 36.89/100
• National rank: #9136
• State rank: #701 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Gholson

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #713
• US rank: #13345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gholson, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $174,999 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-22 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2017-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.