315 Grandview Dr · Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 1950 0.39 ac lot Est $363k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This rustic cabin is on a private cul de sac street with a circular driveway. Lots of knotty pine throughout for a true cabin feel. The main level offers a living room with dining area and a wood stove, adjacent is the family room area with a large brick fireplace. Kitchen is older style but functions just fine for your periodic getaways. There are also 2 bedrooms and a hall bath. Upstairs is another bedroom and room to put a small 3/4 bath if you want. This parcel overlooks the neighbors meadow. Easy walk to the Camp Nelson General Store, Saloon, Laundry facility and the Meadow and Conservancy where many of our events take place. If you're looking for that mountain cabin feel this home has

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Easy walk to saloon
• Private cul de sac

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL DE SAC
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• WOOD STOVE
• LARGE BRICK FIREPLACE
• OVERLOOKS NEIGHBORS MEADOW
• EASY WALK TO SALOON

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Gravel surfaces; Circular driveway; Driveway
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; 100 amp electric service; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories; Fixer condition; Residential use; Mountain Residential zoning
• Construction: Wood siding and board & batten siding; Raised pier/pillar foundation; Composition roof; Built on two stories
• Exterior features: Deck; Sloped, irregular lot with backyard; Gentle to moderate slopes; Asphalt road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Free-standing refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One main-level three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating with wood stove and fireplace; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Laminate counters; Pantry; Storage; Wood-burning fireplace (masonry) with wood stove; Has fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Springville Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 329 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $225k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,423 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,150
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
654 Trails End Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-4%)	18mo	$215,000	$165	53
1184 Highway 190	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-15%)	10mo	$309,000	$269	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $128,029
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $372,441
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93265

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $957/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $151	+0% $88	+5% $24	+10% $-40
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $16	+0% $88	+5% $160	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $145	base $88	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $225,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
19. 2026-04-26
    listed $240,000 Active
20. 1996-10-25
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$957
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$682
• After-tax cash flow: $1,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,881
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #476 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Camp Nelson

• Score: 25/100
• State rank: #1489
• US rank: #27998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Nelson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,532

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.24%
• Current HPI: 361.9818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+336.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $240,000 TCMLS
• 1996-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $957 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.