Taft Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The one-story Taft offers easy living for families and couples alike, featuring an exclusive owner's suite with spa-like bath, and a pair of secondary bedrooms for family members of guests. A separate dining room and gourmet kitchen provide the perfect backdrop for entertaining family or friends, and the family room offers a casual retreat.

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Separate dining room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,905.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,315 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,905
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -13.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6727 Camila St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-1%)	1mo	$259,000	$173	90
6715 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-1%)	1mo	$289,990	$193	85
6702 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-1%)	1mo	$294,990	$197	84
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	2mo	$299,100	$188	80
6910 Bens Lndg	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$280,790	$186	79
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	2mo	$254,970	$181	78
14531 Sweetwater Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+0%)	1mo	$269,999	$178	70
7122 Thomas James Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	0mo	$286,920	$182	67
610 Lost Creek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-7%)	1mo	$255,000	$181	60
14507 Sweet Water Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+8%)	0mo	$289,000	$177	58
6710 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (+14%)	1mo	$314,990	$182	56
6922 Bens Lndg	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+9%)	2mo	$269,180	$164	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-69,512
• Equity at exit: $44,270

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,390
• Equity at exit: $25,671

Cash invested: $83,133 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,000 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 921
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,454/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,597

Max offer price $246,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-146	-5% $-248	+0% $-351	+5% $-453	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-521	-5% $-436	+0% $-351	+5% $-266	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-275	base $-351	+0.5pp $-428	+1.0pp $-506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,226
• Closing costs: $8,907
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	93d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	50d	1	0.66mi
5927 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,700	$1.46	8d	1	0.69mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	27d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	29d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	7d	1	0.89mi
15218 Arnold Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.96mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,886	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	7d	1	1.06mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,136	$1.04	23d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,595	$1.24	12d	1	1.19mi
1 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,095	$1.04	2d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	64d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	52d	1	1.30mi
74 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,195	$1.12	28d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,990 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,990 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,990 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,990 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,990 Active 504 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $255,990 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $255,990 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $255,990 Active 499 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,990 Active 496 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $255,990 Active 493 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 491 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 490 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 489 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 488 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $255,990 Active 487 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 486 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 485 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $255,990 Active 484 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $255,990 Active 483 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 482 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 480 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 479 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,990 Active 478 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,990 Active 477 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 476 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 475 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $255,990 Active 474 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $255,990 Active 473 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $255,990 Active 472 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $255,990 Active 471 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $255,990 Active 470 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $255,990 Active 469 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $255,990 Active 467 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $255,990 Active 465 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $255,990 Active 464 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $255,990 Active 461 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $255,990 Active 460 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $255,990 Active 459 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $255,990 Active 458 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $255,990 Active 456 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,990 Active 452 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,990 Active 451 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,990 Active 450 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,990 Active 447 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,990 Active 446 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,990 Active 445 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,631
• − Property taxes: −$4,454
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,637
• Taxable loss: −$9,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,560–$22,680 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with minor updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $253,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $265,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $262,990 Zillow