Driskill Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and thoughtfully designed, the Driskill offers single-story ease with room for everyone to feel right at home. From the moment you step inside, you'll notice the natural flow of the open-concept layout, where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together in one beautifully cohesive space. Whether you're enjoying quiet evenings or entertaining friends and family, this central hub of the home makes everyday living feel effortless. A central flex room enhances the home's versatility and can be optioned as a private study or a fourth bedroom - allowing you to tailor the space to your lifestyle.

Key facts

• Central flex room
• Covered patio
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,561.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-651 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,763 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,561
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -22.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 N Greenville Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-8%)	2mo	$134,900	$82	69
113 Caddo St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-14%)	4mo	$255,000	$166	49
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (+3%)	15mo	$374,999	$202	48
104 Milton St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-11%)	12mo	$247,500	$154	43
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-3%)	23mo	$325,000	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $138,601
• Equity at exit: $297,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $440,824
• Equity at exit: $642,207

Cash invested: $92,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $271,990 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 125 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,958/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $236,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-423	-5% $-537	+0% $-651	+5% $-765	+10% $-879
Rent	-10% $-814	-5% $-733	+0% $-651	+5% $-569	+10% $-488
Rate	-1.0pp $-485	-0.5pp $-567	base $-651	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,640
• Closing costs: $9,917
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	112d	1	0.22mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,500	$0.87	83d	1	0.51mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	165d	1	0.74mi
629 Dunham Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	43d	1	0.86mi
629 Dunham Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,995	$0.96	38d	1	0.86mi
310 Pennington Rd Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1977	$1,900	$0.96	70d	1	0.86mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	134d	1	0.91mi
315 Pennington Rd Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,399	$1.38	0d	1	0.91mi
902 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,700	$1.04	9d	1	0.91mi
629 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2089	$1,989	$0.95	2d	1	0.91mi
625 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.91mi
621 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	37d	1	0.91mi
621 Dunhill Rd Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	35d	1	0.91mi
602 East St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,950	$1.06	65d	1	0.94mi
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	9d	1	0.96mi
305 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,410	$0.83	3d	1	1.01mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	51d	1	1.02mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	49d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	10d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,095	$1.15	113d	1	1.03mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	31d	1	1.03mi
313 Plum Dr Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,581	$0.87	7d	1	1.11mi
617 Edge Hill Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	38d	1	1.11mi
617 Edge Hill Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,095	$0.94	40d	1	1.11mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	85d	1	1.12mi
617 Edge Hill LN Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,399	$1.07	87d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	148d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	95d	1	1.13mi
500 Shady Bank Way Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2229	$2,275	$1.02	0d	1	1.15mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	153d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	151d	1	1.19mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	130d	1	1.20mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,100	$1.45	0d	1	1.21mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	124d	1	1.24mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	184d	1	1.25mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,650	$1.15	0d	1	1.26mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,650	$1.15	12d	1	1.26mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	77d	1	1.28mi
1216 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$1,939	$0.93	0d	1	1.29mi
503 Northern Red Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$1,925	$1.00	104d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $254,990 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $254,990 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $254,990 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $254,990 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $254,990 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $254,990 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $254,990 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $254,990 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 101 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 100 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 99 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $254,990 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,517
• − Property taxes: −$4,958
• − Insurance: −$1,653
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$9,616
• Taxable loss: −$13,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,337
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B