Driskill Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and thoughtfully designed, the Driskill offers single-story ease with room for everyone to feel right at home. From the moment you step inside, you'll notice the natural flow of the open-concept layout, where the kitchen, dining area, and great room come together in one beautifully cohesive space. Whether you're enjoying quiet evenings or entertaining friends and family, this central hub of the home makes everyday living feel effortless. A central flex room enhances the home's versatility and can be optioned as a private study or a fourth bedroom - allowing you to tailor the space to your lifestyle. The private primary suite is tucked at the rear of the home, offering a quiet retre

Key facts

• Central flex room
• Covered patio
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTRAL FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,382.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,487 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.55%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,382
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -18.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 East St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (+3%)	11mo	$374,999	$202	52
104 Milton St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-11%)	7mo	$247,500	$154	47
104 Swallowtail	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	23mo	$378,500	$210	45
101 Monarch	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,876 (+4%)	21mo	$372,700	$199	44
204 Swallowtail Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-3%)	18mo	$325,000	$186	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $150,038
• Equity at exit: $302,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $467,585
• Equity at exit: $651,574

Cash invested: $93,907 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,031/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $261,193

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,846
• Closing costs: $10,061
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	0.22mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	24d	1	0.74mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	1d	1	0.91mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	10d	1	1.12mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	1.13mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	1.19mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	10d	1	1.19mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	43d	1	1.25mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	1d	1	1.28mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	43d	1	1.29mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	7d	1	1.31mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	4d	1	1.31mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	10d	1	1.33mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	43d	1	1.34mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	1.36mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	12d	1	1.43mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	1.43mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	18d	1	1.44mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	43d	1	1.45mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	1.48mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $274,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $274,990 Active 1298-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,787
• − Property taxes: −$5,031
• − Insurance: −$1,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,193
• − Management: −$2,193
• − Depreciation: −$9,757
• Taxable loss: −$12,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,933
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-designed layout, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B