HAMPTON Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$309,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,146.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,312 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,146
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: 4.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Brazen Forest Trl	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,897 (-5%)	3mo	$299,900	$158	74
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.46mi	4/2.5	1,897 (-5%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	69
7827 Bergamot Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,952 (-2%)	1mo	$299,900	$154	69
7950 Alset Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	68
8026 Peppercorn St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-12%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	67
279 Brazen Forest Trl	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,178 (+9%)	3mo	$309,900	$142	67
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	66
201 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	3mo	$284,900	$160	66
286 Brazen Forest Trl	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	3mo	$284,900	$160	64
20 Courageous Side Way	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (-15%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	60
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-11%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	60
16 Florentino Vine Pl	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+2%)	2mo	$420,000	$205	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $145,102
• Equity at exit: $266,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $423,781
• Equity at exit: $575,346

Cash invested: $82,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,553
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,442/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,591

Max offer price $273,568

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-54	+0% $-156	+5% $-258	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-251	+0% $-156	+5% $-62	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-81	base $-156	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,036
• Closing costs: $8,884
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	5.0	3.0	2517	$2,350	$0.93	45d	1	0.17mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.18mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.20mi
8344 Bristle Cone Pine Way Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2200	$2,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.28mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.30mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.30mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.31mi
79 W Shale Creek Cir Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2918	$4,500	$1.54	45d	1	0.86mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	26d	1	0.92mi
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	23d	1	1.12mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.20mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,320	$1.47	0d	1	1.31mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	13d	1	1.31mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$2,168	$1.84	0d	47	1.34mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	12d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 935 DOM
15. 2025-06-12
    price $309,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

16. 2025-01-01
    price $301,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

17. 2024-04-12
    price $300,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

18. 2024-03-21
    price $299,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

19. 2024-02-28
    price $298,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

20. 2024-02-08
    price $297,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

21. 2024-02-06
    price $295,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

22. 2024-01-08
    price $293,990 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

23. 2023-11-08
    listed $292,990 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertiaing area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,589
• − Property taxes: −$4,442
• − Insurance: −$1,481
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,297
• − Management: −$2,297
• − Depreciation: −$8,615
• Taxable loss: −$7,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $295,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $293,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $292,990 Zillow