21675 Lotus Elm St · Magnolia, TX 77354

$333,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,881 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 4,439 sqft lot $178/sqft · at area comps Est $351k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mesquite plan has three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a two-car attached garage in a beautifully designed layout. The impressive master suite serves as a true retreat, featuring two spacious walk-in closets and a spa-inspired bathroom complete with a soaking tub, step-in shower, private water closet, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms provide generous closet space and convenient access to a full secondary bathroom. Perfect for entertaining, the main level boasts a large family room, a separate dining area, and an upgraded kitchen highlighted by granite countertops, Whirlpool appliances, and elegant cabinetry.

Key facts

• 4,439 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $334k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-676 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,582 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,234
• List price: $333,900
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21694 Lotus Elm St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,881 (0%)	2mo	$343,900	$183	97
21554 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,847 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$195	89
21531 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,847 (-2%)	10mo	$354,900	$192	82
21663 Lotus Elm St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,815 (-4%)	11mo	$311,900	$172	82
21530 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	2mo	$354,900	$197	80
21560 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	8mo	$346,900	$193	75
21527 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-4%)	10mo	$352,900	$196	73
21564 Bluebonnet Bay Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-12%)	3mo	$345,900	$209	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $133,295
• Equity at exit: $300,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $416,417
• Equity at exit: $648,694

Cash invested: $93,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,751
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,008/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,972

Max offer price $236,080

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-445	-5% $-561	+0% $-676	+5% $-791	+10% $-907
Rent	-10% $-843	-5% $-760	+0% $-676	+5% $-592	+10% $-509
Rate	-1.0pp $-508	-0.5pp $-591	base $-676	+0.5pp $-763	+1.0pp $-851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,475
• Closing costs: $10,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,235	$1.17	0d	1	0.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $333,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $333,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $333,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $333,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $333,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $333,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $333,900 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Mesquite plan has three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a two-car attached garage in a beautifully designed layout. The impressive master suite serves as a true retreat, featuring two spacious walk-in closets and a spa-inspired bathroom complete with a soaking tub, step-in shower, private water closet, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms provide generous closet space and convenient access to a full secondary bathroom. Perfect for entertaining, the main level boasts a large family room, a separate dining area, and an upgraded kitchen highlighted by granite countertops, Whirlpool appliances, and elegant cabinetry.

15. 2026-03-06
    listed $329,900 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    The Mesquite plan has three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a two-car attached garage in a beautifully designed layout. The impressive master suite serves as a true retreat, featuring two spacious walk-in closets and a spa-inspired bathroom complete with a soaking tub, step-in shower, private water closet, and linen storage. Two additional bedrooms provide generous closet space and convenient access to a full secondary bathroom. Perfect for entertaining, the main level boasts a large family room, a separate dining area, and an upgraded kitchen highlighted by granite countertops, Whirlpool appliances, and elegant cabinetry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,704
• − Property taxes: −$5,008
• − Insurance: −$1,670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$9,713
• Taxable loss: −$14,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $333,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $329,900 HARMLS