2121 17th St · Lubbock, TX 79401

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1929 6,375 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Leased until 06/16/27 for $995 per month. This is a nice 2 bedroom, 1 bath with office or 3rd Bedroom located in Historic South Overton near Texas Tech. It has off-street parking, central H/A, a large fenced back yard and shed, large rooms, and a rear patio.

Key facts

• Rear patio
• Off-street parking
• 6,375 sq ft lot

Tags

• HISTORIC SOUTH OVERTON
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD
• REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport with 1 carport space; Off-street parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built prior to or in inventory (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); One fireplace; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($787/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($27k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,124 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.7% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $42,325
• Equity at exit: $67,027

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $133,221
• Equity at exit: $125,615

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79401

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,757/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2121 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1048	$995	$0.95	21d	1	0.02mi
2122 16th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1295	$1,025	$0.79	43d	1	0.08mi
2123 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$949	$0.71	13d	1	0.09mi
2101 16th St Unit 2D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$825	$0.87	43d	1	0.10mi
2220 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,300	$0.92	21d	1	0.12mi
2117 14th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	21d	1	0.17mi
2101 14th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	21d	1	0.20mi
2101 14th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	43d	1	0.20mi
2124 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,150	$0.78	13d	1	0.21mi
2317 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.24mi
2316 15th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$795	$0.83	21d	1	0.24mi
2307 20th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$850	$1.00	43d	1	0.25mi
2320 20th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	844	$1,000	$1.18	43d	1	0.26mi
1922 18th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,050	$0.92	21d	1	0.27mi
2109 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	0.27mi
2122 21st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	2	0.28mi
2122 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	1	0.28mi
2122 21st St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	0.28mi
2315 13th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$995	$1.21	43d	1	0.30mi
1626 Avenue Y Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$850	$0.66	43d	1	0.34mi
2402 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	43d	1	0.35mi
1619 University Ave Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$700	$0.78	43d	1	0.37mi
1913 13th St Unit REAR Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	743	$700	$0.94	43d	1	0.37mi
1914 20th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$499	$0.67	13d	1	0.37mi
2113 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1404	$850	$0.61	21d	1	0.38mi
2409 13th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.38mi
2007 Main St Unit 22 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.5	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.41mi
2007 Main St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.5	900	$1,000	$1.11	13d	7	0.41mi
1912 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,025	$0.70	43d	1	0.41mi
2007 Main St Unit 12 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.5	900	$1,000	$1.11	21d	1	0.41mi
2408 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	13d	1	0.42mi
1911 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$750	$1.05	43d	1	0.44mi
2403 22nd Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$900	$0.84	21d	1	0.47mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	21d	1	0.48mi
1911 22nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	787	$695	$0.88	13d	1	0.49mi
2404 Avenue U Unit U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$925	$0.98	43d	1	0.52mi
2404 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$699	$0.74	43d	1	0.52mi
2405 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1042	$895	$0.86	21d	1	0.53mi
2516 21st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,125	$1.07	43d	1	0.54mi
2123 25th St Unit rear Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 258-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 216-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $99,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,757 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,757
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,741
• Household income: $26,980
• Rent vs Own: 91.1% rent · 8.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Current HPI: 233.4915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,500 LARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed for Rent $995 LARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-10 Listed for Rent $995 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-06 Rental Removed $995 LARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed for Rent $995 LARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Rental Removed $950 LARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed for Rent $950 LARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Rental Removed $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-23 Listed for Rent $950 APPFOLIO
• 2024-02-20 Rental Removed $950 LARMLS
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent $950 LARMLS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $950 APPFOLIO
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,757 · -18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.