427 Willett St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,241 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 3,390 sqft lot Est $191k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Quaint home located on a quiet one way street, with easy access to the NYS Thruway. As you enter from the covered front porch you are greeted by the exposed banister, foyer and large living/ dining room area; natural woodwork adds to the charm of the space. A large open kitchen, updated bathroom with granite topped vanity and a first floor laundry make this home very easy to live in. The second floor boasts two bedrooms (3rd bedroom can only be accessed via 2nd bedroom) and a large attic space for storage. The property also includes a solar panel system that will offset the cost of your electric bills, along with an updated furnace. Showings begin on 2/23 @ 8am; negotiations begin 3/1 @ 5pm

Key facts

• 3,390 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $99k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.68%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,114
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Weaver St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-5%)	4mo	$91,000	$77	80
295 Weimar St	0.25mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,194 (-4%)	0mo	$209,000	$175	75
286 Barnard St	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,201 (-3%)	6mo	$185,000	$154	74
405 Weimar St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (-4%)	4mo	$197,500	$166	73
99 Shanley St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,290 (+4%)	8mo	$177,000	$137	72
287 Willett St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,342 (+8%)	3mo	$192,000	$143	67
9 Marann Ter	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,280 (+3%)	2mo	$265,000	$207	64
95 Fernwood Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,137 (-8%)	6mo	$212,000	$186	58
303 Casimer St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,159 (-7%)	7mo	$221,500	$191	57
21 Glenn St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (-7%)	3mo	$15,000	$13	55
143 Weiss St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,410 (+14%)	3mo	$106,000	$75	54
89 Roberts Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,338 (+8%)	4mo	$106,500	$80	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $64,180
• Equity at exit: $75,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.10×
• Total profit: $169,009
• Equity at exit: $150,455

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $376/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.17mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	14d	1	1.19mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	1.21mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	2d	1	1.25mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	1.31mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.36mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	44d	1	1.37mi
61 Princeton Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,300	$1.59	3d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2022-03-07
   status Pending Sale
3. 2022-03-02
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
4. 2022-02-21
   listed $99,000 Active
5. 2012-07-13
   soldstatus $45,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $376 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 172.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$376
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$690
• After-tax cash flow: $3,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+117.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-03-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-02-21 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $376 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.