748 Ponce Ave · St. Louis, MO 63147

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1924 3,811 sqft lot $91/sqft · 31% above area Est $53k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer financing fell through - You have a second chance! This beautifully maintained home is truly move-in ready, offering peace of mind with updated systems and a newer roof. The functional kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space for everyday living, while the spacious finished basement adds incredible versatility—perfect for a family room, home office, gym, or all three. Enjoy the abundance of extra living space downstairs, giving you room to spread out and make it your own. Step outside to a nice, flat backyard—ideal for entertaining, play, or relaxation—complete with a rear deck that’s perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. A well-cared-for home with space, comfort, and flexibility—ready for its next owner to enjoy. Agent Owned.

Key facts

• 3,811 sq ft lot
• Built 1924
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.09%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,187
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: 31.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8572 Oriole Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	768 (0%)	15mo	$34,999	$46	57
1256 Gimblin St	0.57mi	3/1.0	800 (+4%)	12mo	$67,000	$84	56
1266 Lynfield Pl	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+9%)	18mo	$52,000	$62	41
1239 Peggy Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	876 (+14%)	10mo	$102,900	$117	39
1227 Peggy Ct	0.51mi	3/1.0	876 (+14%)	20mo	$14,000	$16	36
8536 Partridge Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (+13%)	11mo	$119,900	$138	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $19,909
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $57,492
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63147

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $251/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $527

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $530	-5% $511	+0% $491	+5% $471	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $445	+0% $491	+5% $536	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $509	base $491	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8612 Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$775	$1.24	5d	2	0.61mi
8530 Lowell St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,100	$1.20	44d	1	0.69mi
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	44d	1	0.98mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	44d	1	1.02mi
5931 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	44d	1	1.30mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	21d	1	1.34mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	4d	1	1.35mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	1.37mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	44d	1	1.40mi
5574 Era Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	13d	1	1.42mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	1.44mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	1.45mi
5721 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,120	$1.09	24d	1	1.45mi
5546 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$1,273	$1.50	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $69,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $72,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    status Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Buyer financing fell through - You have a second chance! This beautifully maintained home is truly move-in ready, offering peace of mind with updated systems and a newer roof. The functional kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space for everyday living, while the spacious finished basement adds incredible versatility—perfect for a family room, home office, gym, or all three. Enjoy the abundance of extra living space downstairs, giving you room to spread out and make it your own. Step outside to a nice, flat backyard—ideal for entertaining, play, or relaxation—complete with a rear deck that’s perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. A well-cared-for home with space, comfort, and flexibility—ready for its next owner to enjoy. Agent Owned.

17. 2026-04-21
    status Pending 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Buyer financing fell through - You have a second chance! This beautifully maintained home is truly move-in ready, offering peace of mind with updated systems and a newer roof. The functional kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space for everyday living, while the spacious finished basement adds incredible versatility—perfect for a family room, home office, gym, or all three. Enjoy the abundance of extra living space downstairs, giving you room to spread out and make it your own. Step outside to a nice, flat backyard—ideal for entertaining, play, or relaxation—complete with a rear deck that’s perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. A well-cared-for home with space, comfort, and flexibility—ready for its next owner to enjoy. Agent Owned.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $84,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Buyer financing fell through - You have a second chance! This beautifully maintained home is truly move-in ready, offering peace of mind with updated systems and a newer roof. The functional kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space for everyday living, while the spacious finished basement adds incredible versatility—perfect for a family room, home office, gym, or all three. Enjoy the abundance of extra living space downstairs, giving you room to spread out and make it your own. Step outside to a nice, flat backyard—ideal for entertaining, play, or relaxation—complete with a rear deck that’s perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. A well-cared-for home with space, comfort, and flexibility—ready for its next owner to enjoy. Agent Owned.

19. 2026-04-02
    historical $84,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Buyer financing fell through - You have a second chance! This beautifully maintained home is truly move-in ready, offering peace of mind with updated systems and a newer roof. The functional kitchen provides a practical and welcoming space for everyday living, while the spacious finished basement adds incredible versatility—perfect for a family room, home office, gym, or all three. Enjoy the abundance of extra living space downstairs, giving you room to spread out and make it your own. Step outside to a nice, flat backyard—ideal for entertaining, play, or relaxation—complete with a rear deck that’s perfect for morning coffee or evening gatherings. A well-cared-for home with space, comfort, and flexibility—ready for its next owner to enjoy. Agent Owned.

20. 1997-10-29
    soldstatus
21. 1997-10-29
    soldstatus
22. 1993-04-21
    soldstatus
23. 1993-03-15
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 169.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$251
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,207
• After-tax cash flow: $4,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,173
• Household income: $41,182
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 92% White 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.51%
• Current HPI: 84.224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+281.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $84,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $84,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $251 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.