3010 Hartwick Rd · Houston, TX 77093

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1983 8,058 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOT VALUE ONLY. Take advantage of this rare lot (approx 8,060 SF, about 65’ x 124’) with so much space & possibilities! This fully fenced property is being sold As-Is an includes the manufactured home currently on site . Think big-picture options like an oversized yard, pool + outdoor kitchen, workshop, garden space, extra parking for boat/RV, storage building, or future new construction. Buyer to verify allowable use, permits, utilities, setbacks, & restrictions. Located in deed-restricted Oakwilde w/ no HOA & quick access to Hardy Toll Rd, I-45, I-69, Beltway 8, & Loop 610. 14’ x 78’ trailer (not including trailer tongue) featuring 3 bedroom

Key facts

• Extra parking
• Oversized yard
• Workshop

Tags

• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• OVERSIZED YARD
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• WORKSHOP
• GARDEN SPACE
• EXTRA PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1983; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Storage; Shed(s); Subdivision setting; Side yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mead Middle (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 1,012 students, 93% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,571 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.39%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $22,598
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $75,656
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $173/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $572	-5% $548	+0% $523	+5% $402	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $422	-5% $473	+0% $523	+5% $574	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $545	base $523	+0.5pp $501	+1.0pp $479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	23d	1	1.41mi
4341 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,107	$1.19	45d	1	1.41mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$983	$1.13	23d	6	1.42mi
4335 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,307	$1.40	3d	7	1.42mi
4505 Aldine Mail Route Rd Unit 712 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,325	$1.43	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Pending 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Pending 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $85,000 Pending 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 659-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $85,000 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $173 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,382/yr (+$115/mo · 797.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$173
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $5,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $173 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.