528 Forest Way · Longboat Key, FL 34228

$585,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Condo public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1989 $927/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Elevated, renovated, fully furnished, pet friendly, close to the beach AND a short term rental opportunity on Longboat Key?! This is the one you've been looking for! You don't have to be a tennis player to understand the value of this fabulous townhome in Cedars Tennis Club. This 2 bedroom, 2 and a half bath condo is the perfect island escape. Beautifully updated and furnished, all you’ll need to bring is your bathing suit and a toothbrush to start enjoying island life to the fullest. Add to it a short term two week rental policy, this could also be your perfect investment property. Current annual income has been around $50,000, but that also includes a lot of family enjoyment in betw

Key facts

• Private garage
• New impact windows
• Pet friendly

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• PET FRIENDLY
• SHORT TERM RENTAL POLICY
• NEW IMPACT WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unit is furnished
• Financial info: Monthly condo fee: $927 (quarterly fee amount listed as $2,781); Total annual fees: $11,124
• HOA & community: Community managed by Coastal Association Management; Quarterly association fees (includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, pest control); Association fee requirement: required; Association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts; Pets allowed with breed restrictions (max pet weight listed)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Additional guest parking; Basement parking / ground-level access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Completed condition; Three or more stories; Faces south; First-floor unit (floor 1)
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building name: CEDARS EAST; Built as part of a multi-story building
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Outdoor lighting; Sliding doors; Tennis courts; Heated in-ground lap pool with lighting; Landscaped with trees; Flood zone; Located in city limits / in county; Near golf course; Near marina; Paved road access; Street lights in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Stone counters; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $585k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $585k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 539 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $164k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $585k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $585,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $20,172
• Equity at exit: $191,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $141,627
• Equity at exit: $248,185

Cash invested: $163,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34228

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,068
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$927
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,376
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,229

Max offer price $585,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,250
• Closing costs: $17,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
535 Forest Way Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.5	1440	$6,900	$4.79	23d	1	0.02mi
5621 Gulf of Mexico Dr #103 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1731	$5,500	$3.18	23d	1	0.14mi
5621 Gulf of Mexico Dr #102 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$6,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.14mi
573 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	16d	1	0.15mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #3 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	23d	1	0.17mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #5 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	3.0	1672	$7,750	$4.64	23d	1	0.17mi
5611 Gulf of Mexico Dr #1 Longboat Key, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$14,000	$8.36	23d	1	0.17mi
655 Cedars Ct #655 Longboat Key, FL	1.0	2.0	1244	$7,000	$5.63	23d	1	0.17mi
676 El Centro Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,250	$2.28	23d	1	0.18mi
730 Spanish Dr S #99 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,800	$2.23	2d	1	0.23mi
820 Spanish Dr S Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$3,000	$2.16	16d	1	0.31mi
914 Spanish Dr S #76 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$6,500	$4.85	23d	1	0.42mi
957 Spanish Dr N Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1399	$5,500	$3.93	23d	1	0.46mi
615 Dream Island Rd #201 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1514	$10,500	$6.94	23d	1	0.62mi
615 Dream Island Rd #107 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1293	$12,500	$9.67	23d	1	0.62mi
4825 Gulf of Mexico Dr #201 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1393	$7,800	$5.60	23d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $927 · $11,124/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $585,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $585,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $585,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $585,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $585,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $585,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $585,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $585,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $585,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $585,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,856 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,784/yr (+$149/mo · 58.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,769
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$8,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,292
• − Management: −$6,292
• − HOA: −$11,124
• − Depreciation: −$17,018
• Taxable loss: −$5,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $4,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Longboat Key

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #14452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longboat Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,539
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,539
• Household income: $158,030
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 234.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-65.6% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $585,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $595,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Listed $610,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $610,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $649,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-19 Listed $675,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-29 Sold (MLS) $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-23 Listed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-17 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-03 Listed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $287,500 Public Records
• 2013-01-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-19 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,700,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,072 · -53.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.