429 S 12th St · West Memphis, AR 72301

$13,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1977 7,405 sqft lot Est $12k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has been vacant for at least five (5) years and will need a complete rehab. Utilities are not on.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Cap rate 93.2% vs local median 6.9% in West Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#413 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Memphis School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 238 in AR (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Junior High School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #197 of 201 statewide, top 98%, 263 students, 100% FRL); The Academies of West Memphis Charter School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #265 of 292 statewide, top 91%, 952 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 100% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $93 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $405 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 93.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 310.23%
• DSCR: 14.80
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $12,384
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
429 S 12th St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,032 (0%)	0mo	$12,000	$12	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.89×
• Total profit: $60,067
• Equity at exit: $2,013

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 36.06×
• Total profit: $132,509
• Equity at exit: $1,167

Cash invested: $3,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72301

• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$71
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $96/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $107

Max offer price $13,500

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $985	-5% $981	+0% $977	+5% $973	+10% $970
Rent	-10% $871	-5% $924	+0% $977	+5% $1,030	+10% $1,083
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $981	base $977	+0.5pp $974	+1.0pp $970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,375
• Closing costs: $405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1398 E Barton Ave West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	12d	1	0.90mi
2501 E Tyler Ave West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,500	$1.23	46d	1	0.91mi
2502 E Tyler Ave West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	46d	1	0.92mi
2504 Tyler Cir West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	0d	1	0.93mi
2506 E Tyler Ave West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	18d	1	0.94mi
307 Westree St West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,550	$1.27	12d	1	0.95mi
309 Westree St West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,550	$1.27	0d	1	0.95mi
316 Chestnut St West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	46d	1	1.06mi
310 Chestnut St West Memphis, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	0d	1	1.06mi
741 N 18th St West Memphis, AR	2.0	1.0	814	$940	$1.15	6d	1	1.10mi
2400 Goodwin Ave West Memphis, AR	2.0	1.5	1100	$775	$0.70	46d	1	1.25mi
2401 Wheeler Ave West Memphis, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$750	$0.75	46d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $13,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $13,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $13,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $13,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $13,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $12,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $96 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $96 · $8/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$756
• − Property taxes: −$96
• − Insurance: −$68
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$393
• Taxable income: $12,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,936
• After-tax cash flow: $8,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Memphis School District
• NCES district ID: 0508040
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $29,382
• Composite: 12.22/100
• National rank: #9647
• State rank: #224 of 238 in AR

Livability — West Memphis

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #23638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Memphis, AR
• City population: 24,182
• Population (ZIP): 24,182

Population outlook (Crittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,254 people
• By 2030: 42,953 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 33,670 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,315 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 17,173 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crittenden

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 47.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.7pp · 2024: 2.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.3 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+9.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.63%
• Current HPI: 182.7665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $12,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $96 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.