Vertex (Pin Oak) Plan · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$69,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 323 Days on market

Good condition $630/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Premier Community * * * Pickleball courts; corn hole; basketball courts; dog park; walking trail; second municipal grade playground! Located along Interstates 64 and 70, and just 40 minutes west of St. Louis in Charles County, Pin Oak Pointe is a lovely, relaxed community with easy convenience to the City of St. Charles, shopping, schools, and major employers like Mastercard, Citi, SAK Construction and a host of other companies. O'Fallon is a great place to live with its close proximity to enriching culture and exciting nightlife, including restaurants, dinner theater and strolling along the Missouri River. It is also a 30-minute drive to Missouri Weinstrasse, Missouri's wine country road, and explore charming towns, award winning wineries and vineyard tours. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Dog Park, Pavillion, Picnic Area, Pickleball, Playground, Shuffleboard, and Walking/Nature Trails. Stop by today and visit our available homesites!

Key facts

• Dog park
• Corn hole
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• CORN HOLE
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• DOG PARK
• WALKING TRAIL
• MUNICIPAL GRADE PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $69,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $347,807.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 7.5% of price; HOA is 35% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.67%
• DSCR: 0.12
• GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,807
• List price: $69,995
• Delta: -79.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Newal Way Unit 175-606	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,145 (+14%)	23mo	$363,029	$317	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -58.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-160,155
• Equity at exit: $51,859

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.86×
• Total profit: $-278,839
• Equity at exit: $30,072

Cash invested: $97,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,217/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-1,596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,840

Max offer price $116,830

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,952
• Closing costs: $10,434
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.5	1214	$1,625	$1.34	11d	1	0.21mi
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	3d	1	0.21mi
13300 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,450	$1.42	8d	1	0.31mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.35mi
9201 Spring Creek Ln Unit 9201 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,600	$1.58	4d	1	0.37mi
9200 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	0.37mi
6303 Spring River Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,697	$1.67	44d	1	0.57mi
4103 Spring River Dr Unit 4103 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	16d	1	0.59mi
234 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.64mi
214 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	18d	1	0.64mi
284 Stonewall Creek Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	44d	1	0.89mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,228	$2.22	2d	16	0.90mi
55 Timber Oaks Trl O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	0.93mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,781	$1.90	4d	1	1.37mi
100 Big River Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1349	$2,717	$2.01	44d	1	1.39mi
4133 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	44d	1	1.44mi
1124 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	1.45mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	15d	1	1.46mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	11d	1	1.46mi
5123 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	8d	1	1.46mi
603 Country Village Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	11d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,995 Active 323 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,995 Active 322 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,995 Active 321 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,995 Active 320 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,995 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,995 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,995 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,995 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,995 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,995 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,995 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 305 DOM
15. 2025-07-31
    listed $69,995 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Premier Community * * * Pickleball courts; corn hole; basketball courts; dog park; walking trail; second municipal grade playground! Located along Interstates 64 and 70, and just 40 minutes west of St. Louis in Charles County, Pin Oak Pointe is a lovely, relaxed community with easy convenience to the City of St. Charles, shopping, schools, and major employers like Mastercard, Citi, SAK Construction and a host of other companies. O'Fallon is a great place to live with its close proximity to enriching culture and exciting nightlife, including restaurants, dinner theater and strolling along the Missouri River. It is also a 30-minute drive to Missouri Weinstrasse, Missouri's wine country road, and explore charming towns, award winning wineries and vineyard tours. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Dog Park, Pavillion, Picnic Area, Pickleball, Playground, Shuffleboard, and Walking/Nature Trails. Stop by today and visit our available homesites!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,483
• − Property taxes: −$5,217
• − Insurance: −$1,739
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$10,118
• Taxable loss: −$25,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide mobile home is in good condition with modern appliances and neutral decor. It's located in a well-maintained community with easy access to amenities and entertainment. Consider painting the exterior and interior for a fresh look and adding smart home features to appeal to a broader market.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $69,995 Zillow