112 Mohican Dr · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$72,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot $103/sqft · 74% above area $163/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

HAVE A BIG FAMILY AND LOTS OF FRIENDS?? Then this is the vacation spot for you!! Meticulous trailer, porch and grounds are ready for you to enjoy!! This 2 bedroom trailer is newer, has everything you need, and is close to all amenities in fabulous Trails End. Rich mahogany cabinets and woodwork, 2 full beds and a great porch on an all-graveled, cleared, flat lot. Large shed has an extra fridge, and all the items needed for maintaining your cabin in the woods!! Huge firepit for happy, fun-filled nights. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Extra fridge
• Meticulous trailer
• Great porch

Tags

• METICULOUS TRAILER
• GREAT PORCH
• ALL-GRAVELED LOT
• LARGE SHED
• EXTRA FRIDGE
• HUGE FIREPIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Trails End
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fees (association covers electricity, sewer, water, and trash); Community amenities include gated entry, clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, basketball and shuffleboard courts, recreation/game/party rooms, meeting room, restaurant, and fishing

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Gated community with 24-hour security and security guard
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer (connected); Water connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (one level); Property is attached; Used for recreational/vacation; Asbestos shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Shed(s); Has a view; Cleared, mostly level lot with few trees; Rectangular lot; Gravel road access (private maintained road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range and oven
• Bedrooms: Total of 2 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Microwave; Water heater; Refrigerator; Gas range and oven; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($498 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $69,840 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.93%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,387
• List price: $72,000
• Delta: 73.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
Lot 4918 Mohican Dr	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	9mo	$45,000	$64	84
125 Tribes Dr Lot 5302	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	10mo	$34,000	$49	81
226 Shohola Parkway Pkwy Lot 954	0.20mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	12mo	$80,000	$114	81
142 Commanche Dr Lot 5613	0.20mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	14mo	$40,000	$57	79
165 Tribes Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	12mo	$48,000	$69	79
133 Crow Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	17mo	$52,000	$74	78
5133 Mohican Ln Lot 5133	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	22mo	$25,000	$36	74
3431 Dakota Ln	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (0%)	12mo	$39,750	$57	69
128 Navajo Ln	0.43mi	2/1.0	700 (0%)	15mo	$22,000	$31	67
237 Shohola Pkwy N	0.14mi	2/1.0	600 (-14%)	17mo	$35,000	$58	56
1944 Cardinal Ln Lot 1944	0.44mi	2/1.0	600 (-14%)	21mo	$38,000	$63	38
105 Beaver Ln Lot 1102	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	600 (-14%)	8mo	$47,000	$78	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $74,571
• Equity at exit: $64,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.53×
• Total profit: $192,137
• Equity at exit: $139,880

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $836

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $578	+0% $553	+5% $528	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $493	+0% $553	+5% $614	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $572	base $553	+0.5pp $535	+1.0pp $516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $72,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $72,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $72,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $75,000 Active 537-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $5,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $5,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. It has a good location and amenities, but the exterior needs some attention to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — The listing photos show some wear on the siding, but it is not severe enough to require major repairs.
• Minor exterior landscaping — The satellite image shows a lack of landscaping, which could be improved to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both landscape exterior — Landscape improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The listing photos show some wear on the siding, but it is not severe enough to require major repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior landscaping · The satellite image shows a lack of landscaping, which could be improved to enhance curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscape exterior — Landscape improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $72,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $75,000 PWMLS