18725 Hwy 108 #89 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$76,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition Est $90k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Renovated mobile home located in Woods Creek Mobile Home Park. This charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom home features a spacious kitchen with brand-new granite countertops and seperate dining-perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom complete with large soaking tub and separate shower. The second bathroom has been update with a large newly titled shower. Enjoy the open-concept layout connecting the kitchen and living room, enhanced by convenient bar seating. Ideally situated just minutes from town, offering easy access to shopping and dinning.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Soaking tub
• Private bathroom

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BAR SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Woods Creek Mobile Home Park; Senior community; Clubhouse; Pool; BBQ / barbeque area; Laundry facilities; Picnic area; Pets allowed with number and size limits

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Street parking
• Utilities: Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Community pool
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-wide model (Radco)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Deck; Carpeted patio/porch with awning(s); Back yard; Low-maintenance yard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved access

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast nook; Stone counters; Free-standing range; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with tub, stall shower and updated finishes; Other bathroom(s) with stall shower, tile and updated finishes
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace (propane); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Updated kitchen; Bonus/plus room; Dining area; Expando room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.23%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,908
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.40mi	2/2.0	960 (-3%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	69
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	944 (-4%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	67
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-3%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	62
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+5%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	57
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+15%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $28,954
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $78,533
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $76,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $76,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $78,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$1,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $7,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,684
• After-tax cash flow: $6,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This renovated mobile home in Woods Creek Mobile Home Park is in good condition with updated interiors and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $78,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR