The 1443 Plan · Waco, TX 76655

$285,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! Upon entering this exceptional floor plan, you're immediately greeted with a formal dining room. Walking into the open-concept kitchen and living room, you'll be stunned by the amount of space you have to gather. This three-bedroom, two bath home has perfectly placed windows in the living room, primary bedroom, and dining room, crafting a home that is filled with natural light and charm. Granite countertops throughout and large walk-in primary closet top it all off and make this home exceptional.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Open-concept kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WALK-IN PRIMARY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lorena, TX 76655; Listing status: Active; List price available (not included per instructions)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating and power; Central air conditioning
• Home design: New construction plan (The 1443)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,447 (plan: The 1443)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan model home (The 1443)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($133/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castleman Creek El (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 585 students, 51% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,506 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,583
• Equity at exit: $42,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-38,628
• Equity at exit: $24,719

Cash invested: $80,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,499
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$357 /mo · $4,288/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501

Max offer price $285,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $110	+0% $11	+5% $-88	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-88	+0% $11	+5% $110	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $84	base $11	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,475
• Closing costs: $8,577
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.20mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	45d	1	0.56mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	45d	1	0.60mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	0.63mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.64mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.70mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	45d	1	0.72mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	23d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $285,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $285,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    price $285,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,900 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,900 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    remarks 658-char remark
19. 2026-05-31
    listed $300,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,015
• − Property taxes: −$4,288
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − Depreciation: −$8,317
• Taxable loss: −$4,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B