19550 N Grayhawk Dr #1024 · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$639,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,837 sqft · Condo public records · 251 Days on market

Built 2001 $348/sqft · 22% below area Est $738k · 13% under $371/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous ''FURNISHED townhome'' located in Cachet at Grayhawk golf community within 24 hour gate guarded Talon Retreat. The layout features two ensuite BRs upstairs and a den/office downstairs. Master Suite has a walkout balcony with panoramic views of the McDowell Mountains and features a bathroom with a double sink vanity, separate tub & shower & large walk-in closet. The open floor plan features a great room with dramatic vaulted ceiling, a gas fireplace and sliding door access to covered rear patio. The kitchen & breakfast bar open to a spacious dining area. The office/den, laundry and powder room complete the first floor. Direct entry to the 2 car garage. If you're looking for a location that has proximity to fine dining, shopping, golf courses, hiking & convenience, this is it.

Key facts

• Walkout balcony
• Covered rear patio
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• FURNISHED TOWNHOME
• WALKOUT BALCONY
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• GREAT ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• COVERED REAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (42.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($562k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $231k; list at $639k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,222 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.38%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $737,931
• List price: $639,000
• Delta: -13.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $79,279
• Equity at exit: $387,142

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $324,454
• Equity at exit: $689,828

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,548/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$371
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-1,521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,577

Max offer price $370,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,159	-5% $-1,340	+0% $-1,521	+5% $-1,702	+10% $-1,883
Rent	-10% $-1,809	-5% $-1,665	+0% $-1,521	+5% $-1,377	+10% $-1,232
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,199	-0.5pp $-1,358	base $-1,521	+0.5pp $-1,687	+1.0pp $-1,855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Unit 1545664P Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1313	$2,159	$1.64	14d	1	0.03mi
19550 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1814	$3,800	$2.09	44d	4	0.06mi
19838 N 84th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2549	$12,000	$4.71	14d	1	0.37mi
19475 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2155	$3,195	$1.48	44d	5	0.41mi
8941 E Maple Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1517	$4,375	$2.88	44d	1	0.54mi
8182 E Sierra Pinta Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2476	$3,950	$1.60	45d	1	0.62mi
19079 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	1568	$2,750	$1.75	21d	1	0.63mi
8136 E Beardsley Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2244	$5,950	$2.65	44d	1	0.67mi
8184 E Beardsley Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2244	$8,500	$3.79	44d	1	0.67mi
8891 E Mountain Spring Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	2431	$5,500	$2.26	5d	1	0.71mi
9116 E Siesta Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,500	$1.77	11d	1	0.79mi
8227 E Angel Spirit Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2366	$4,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.79mi
8890 E Flathorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	3.0	2431	$8,000	$3.29	22d	1	0.80mi
8882 E Flathorn Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2390	$8,000	$3.35	44d	1	0.80mi
8224 E Angel Spirit Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2306	$9,500	$4.12	4d	1	0.82mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,250	$1.68	22d	9	0.83mi
20750 N 87th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1930	$3,300	$1.71	24d	8	0.83mi
8228 E Mohawk Ln Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	2306	$8,500	$3.69	44d	1	0.86mi
19047 N 91st Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2198	$15,000	$6.82	44d	1	0.86mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	4d	17	0.92mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1202	$3,925	$3.26	44d	5	0.92mi
20100 N 78th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$4,650	$4.46	20d	15	0.92mi
20704 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1849	$3,900	$2.11	8d	4	1.00mi
20802 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	2295	$3,450	$1.50	2d	2	1.01mi
20802 N Grayhawk Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	2030	$3,870	$1.91	44d	4	1.01mi
8122 E Theresa Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,395	$1.83	44d	1	1.05mi
9440 E Palm Tree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	2242	$3,695	$1.65	44d	1	1.08mi
19777 N 76th St Unit 1546393P Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,109	$2.35	8d	1	1.09mi
20801 N 90th Pl Unit 01 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$6,450	$4.09	44d	1	1.11mi
20801 N 90th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1437	$2,595	$1.81	2d	4	1.11mi
20121 N 76th St #2003 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,795	$2.11	3d	1	1.12mi
20121 N 76th St #2043 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1854	$3,550	$1.91	44d	1	1.12mi
8158 E Rita Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1854	$3,200	$1.73	8d	1	1.12mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1293	$3,250	$2.51	44d	9	1.13mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	10d	19	1.13mi
19777 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1324	$1,995	$1.51	3d	16	1.13mi
7729 E Tailspin Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1634	$3,400	$2.08	8d	1	1.16mi
9270 E Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2165	$8,750	$4.04	44d	2	1.17mi
18507 N 94th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1887	$3,500	$1.85	3d	1	1.17mi
19700 N 76th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1633	$2,000	$1.22	5d	14	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $371 · $4,452/yr
• Likely covers: gassecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,000 Active 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,000 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,000 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,000 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,000 Active 246 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,000 Active 245 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,000 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $639,000 Active 240 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $639,000 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,000 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,000 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,000 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,000 Active 233 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $639,000 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Fabulous ''FURNISHED townhome'' located in Cachet at Grayhawk golf community within 24 hour gate guarded Talon Retreat. The layout features two ensuite BRs upstairs and a den/office downstairs. Master Suite has a walkout balcony with panoramic views of the McDowell Mountains and features a bathroom with a double sink vanity, separate tub & shower & large walk-in closet. The open floor plan features a great room with dramatic vaulted ceiling, a gas fireplace and sliding door access to covered rear patio. The kitchen & breakfast bar open to a spacious dining area. The office/den, laundry and powder room complete the first floor. Direct entry to the 2 car garage. If you're looking for a location that has proximity to fine dining, shopping, golf courses, hiking & convenience, this is it.

16. 2026-03-05
    price $660,000 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Fabulous ''FURNISHED townhome'' located in Cachet at Grayhawk golf community within 24 hour gate guarded Talon Retreat. The layout features two ensuite BRs upstairs and a den/office downstairs. Master Suite has a walkout balcony with panoramic views of the McDowell Mountains and features a bathroom with a double sink vanity, separate tub & shower & large walk-in closet. The open floor plan features a great room with dramatic vaulted ceiling, a gas fireplace and sliding door access to covered rear patio. The kitchen & breakfast bar open to a spacious dining area. The office/den, laundry and powder room complete the first floor. Direct entry to the 2 car garage. If you're looking for a location that has proximity to fine dining, shopping, golf courses, hiking & convenience, this is it.

17. 2026-01-15
    price $685,000 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Fabulous ''FURNISHED townhome'' located in Cachet at Grayhawk golf community within 24 hour gate guarded Talon Retreat. The layout features two ensuite BRs upstairs and a den/office downstairs. Master Suite has a walkout balcony with panoramic views of the McDowell Mountains and features a bathroom with a double sink vanity, separate tub & shower & large walk-in closet. The open floor plan features a great room with dramatic vaulted ceiling, a gas fireplace and sliding door access to covered rear patio. The kitchen & breakfast bar open to a spacious dining area. The office/den, laundry and powder room complete the first floor. Direct entry to the 2 car garage. If you're looking for a location that has proximity to fine dining, shopping, golf courses, hiking & convenience, this is it.

18. 2025-10-10
    listed $699,000 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Fabulous ''FURNISHED townhome'' located in Cachet at Grayhawk golf community within 24 hour gate guarded Talon Retreat. The layout features two ensuite BRs upstairs and a den/office downstairs. Master Suite has a walkout balcony with panoramic views of the McDowell Mountains and features a bathroom with a double sink vanity, separate tub & shower & large walk-in closet. The open floor plan features a great room with dramatic vaulted ceiling, a gas fireplace and sliding door access to covered rear patio. The kitchen & breakfast bar open to a spacious dining area. The office/den, laundry and powder room complete the first floor. Direct entry to the 2 car garage. If you're looking for a location that has proximity to fine dining, shopping, golf courses, hiking & convenience, this is it.

19. 2021-10-23
    historical
20. 2021-09-25
    listed $579,500 Active
21. 2000-12-28
    soldstatus $230,644

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,548 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,217 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$3,548
• − Insurance: −$4,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,506
• − Management: −$3,506
• − HOA: −$4,452
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$30,231
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+177.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $639,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $660,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $685,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-09-25 Listed $579,500 ARMLS
• 2000-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $230,644 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,548 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.