1414 S Plum St · Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 7,013 sqft lot $98/sqft · 30% below area Est $250k · 30% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Strong investment potential!!! Located in the heart of Pecos, this nicely sized home features 3 beds, 2 baths, galley kitchen, and inviting fireplace in a spacious living space. Also a bonus room at the front of the house! With a little love, this home would have a broad appeal in a booming market!

Key facts

• 7,013 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space total; 1 covered space; Carport; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with solar energy generation
• Exterior features: Storage structure on property; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Window air unit(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 644 students, 80% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.04%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,358
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -30.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2012 S Alamo St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	14mo	$220,000	$136	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $51,273
• Equity at exit: $41,496

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $142,159
• Equity at exit: $42,941

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,387/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $1,022

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Mimosa St Pecos, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$2,800	$1.27	43d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $200,000 Active 299-char remark
17. 2017-08-02
    soldstatus
18. 2014-08-18
    soldstatus
19. 1996-03-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,387
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $10,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,416
• After-tax cash flow: $9,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Town of Pecos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Town of Pecos, TX
• City population: 12,547
• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $175,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $185,000 ODMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $200,000 ODMLS
• 2017-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,387 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.