66 Dreyer Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$249,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1959 6,000 sqft lot $152/sqft · 17% below area Est $303k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 66 Dreyer Ave in the Town of Tonawanda! This well maintained 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers incredible space and endless potential. Step inside to find original character throughout, including hardwood floors, wood paneled accents, and spacious living areas filled with natural light. The eat in kitchen offers ample cabinet space. A partially finished basement with a convenient half bath provides additional living or entertaining space. Major updates include a new furnace (2022), hot water tank (2020), updated 150-amp electrical panel (2020), and many newer vinyl replacement windows for added efficiency and peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a detached garage and concrete driveway. Co

Key facts

• Natural light
• Ample cabinet space
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD PANELED ACCENTS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; Garage approximately 1.5-car
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two stories; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot (50 x 120)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living/dining room; Storage; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,685 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,622
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -17.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Nicholas Dr N	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,736 (+5%)	17mo	$220,000	$127	72
71 Bannard Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-2%)	18mo	$222,500	$138	61
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.16mi	4/1.0	1,434 (-13%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	58
45 Drew Pl	0.50mi	4/1.0	1,628 (-1%)	18mo	$230,000	$141	58
205 Joseph Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (+3%)	15mo	$279,000	$164	55
101 Bonnett Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (-7%)	14mo	$310,000	$203	51
50 Orchard Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,753 (+6%)	8mo	$400,000	$228	44
89 Bonnett Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-10%)	16mo	$225,000	$152	43
47 Waverly Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,890 (+15%)	9mo	$320,000	$169	36
159 Rosemont Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,791 (+9%)	16mo	$280,000	$156	32
5 Queens Guard	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,412 (-14%)	18mo	$220,000	$156	29
3324 Elmwood Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-14%)	18mo	$249,900	$175	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-52,783
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,621
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,666/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,494

Max offer price $192,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-182	-5% $-253	+0% $-324	+5% $-395	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-406	+0% $-324	+5% $-242	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-260	base $-324	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.17mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.96mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	24d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $249,900 Active 979-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,666 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,666 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$6,666
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,963
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,666 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.