131 Marcel Dr · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2005 0.35 ac lot Est $312k · 12% under $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This contemporary salt box is a blank slate just waiting for you to make it home! It sits across the street from the lake in Marcel Lake Estates so you can watch the lake sparkle from your PRIMARY 1ST FLOOR BEDROOM. Cozy up to the PROPANE FIREPLACE on cold Pocono nights and use the WOOD STOVE in the basement to save on heating costs! ESPOSED WOOD BEAMS grace the ceiling in the lake-facing upstairs bedroom, making a serene, rustic retreat in the home. There's refinished hardwood floors, new countertops & flooring in the kitchen and new carpeting upstairs. Don't forget to notice the fresh neutral paint throughout, including in the FINISHED BASEMENT . Make the basement a rec room or an

Key facts

• Propane fireplace
• Wood stove
• Exposed wood beams

Tags

• PROPANE FIREPLACE
• WOOD STOVE
• EXPOSED WOOD BEAMS
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Marcel Lake Estates subdivision with community lake access (Lake Renee)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association membership; Annual association fee; Association amenities: pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, gated access, exercise course, trash service; One-time fee listed separately (noted)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer (connected); Public water (connected); Propane available/connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Updated/remodeled condition; Front door entry; Located in a gated community; Private road frontage on a privately maintained asphalt road
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built structure type: House
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; French doors; Sliding doors; Has lake view (Lake Renee); Playground nearby (community amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wood stove; Fireplaces provide additional heat; Ceiling fans; Attic fan; Has cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Aluminum-framed windows; Finished basement with both interior and exterior entry; Basement is full and finished; Two fireplaces (living room; basement) — wood burning and propane; Dehumidifier
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Washer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $216k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $198,116 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Yvonne Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,114 (+8%)	12mo	$285,000	$135	70
109 Lake Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (+4%)	7mo	$497,000	$243	65
317 Marcel Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,093 (+7%)	1mo	$242,000	$116	64
107 Lake Forest Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,033 (+4%)	6mo	$309,900	$152	64
108 Saint Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,932 (-1%)	20mo	$197,000	$102	64
111 Babette Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,140 (+9%)	8mo	$292,000	$136	54
190 Marcel Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-15%)	0mo	$615,000	$369	54
155 Fox Rd	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,834 (-6%)	12mo	$299,000	$163	46
154 Marcel Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-14%)	20mo	$358,800	$214	46
101 Bernadette Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-12%)	22mo	$275,000	$159	45
107 Adrienne Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,932 (-1%)	21mo	$300,000	$155	44
215 Lake Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (-6%)	16mo	$300,000	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $122,187
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $381,765
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,235/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,531

Max offer price $198,235

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $275,000 Active
2. 2006-05-18
   soldstatus $216,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,235 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,290 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,235
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+27.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $275,000 PWMLS
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $216,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,235 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.