21421 Manon Way · California, MD 20653

$239,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,258 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1989 1,580 sqft lot Est $235k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING opportunity to buy a starter home or investment in the Westbury Townhome community! This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full and 1 half bathroom townhome has a brand new roof, new flooring and paint throughout, updated kitchen and is FULLY FURNISHED. Eat-in kitchen over looking fenced in backyard and large deck! Over 1200 sq ft of living space in a community that features sidewalks and a pool. Purchasing unfurnished is an option, however seller would prefer to leave furnished! PROFESSIONAL INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING 9/6/2022

Key facts

• $13 HOA
• Built 1989
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $40 annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling fuel, and hot water
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Effective major renovation year listed as 2025
• Construction: Block construction; Permanent foundation; Assessor indicates year built/effective 2025
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water not present; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; Electric cooling fuel (other cooling type)
• Interior features: No basement; Assessor-listed living area source
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area (in unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.3% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,248 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,246
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46074 Callas Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,302 (+4%)	6mo	$255,000	$196	81
46091 Maria Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,160 (-8%)	10mo	$232,000	$200	74
46099 Lucca Way	0.08mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,240 (-1%)	23mo	$206,000	$166	70
46072 Callas Way	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (-1%)	23mo	$236,000	$189	67
46281 Mako Way	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+2%)	7mo	$239,400	$187	66
46099 Maria Way	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-8%)	24mo	$147,500	$127	63
46289 Mako Way	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-5%)	9mo	$260,000	$217	60
46262 Mako Way	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+2%)	22mo	$200,000	$156	54
46279 Mako Way	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+2%)	24mo	$195,000	$152	52
46359 Columbus Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-8%)	7mo	$215,000	$185	48
46351 Columbus Dr #207	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,114 (-11%)	2mo	$228,145	$205	41
46361 Columbus Dr #107	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,114 (-11%)	22mo	$199,900	$179	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,414
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,109
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,008/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 414-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on marketlisting id $239,900 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    status Active
18. 2026-04-06
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-31
    price $249,900
20. 2026-01-15
    listed $259,900 Active
21. 2025-07-28
    historical
22. 2025-05-22
    price $240,000
23. 2025-05-22
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-05-19
    price $230,000
25. 2025-04-04
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2025-03-26
    historical
27. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus $200,000
28. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AMAZING opportunity to buy a starter home or investment in the Westbury Townhome community! This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full and 1 half bathroom townhome has a brand new roof, new flooring and paint throughout, updated kitchen and is FULLY FURNISHED. Eat-in kitchen over looking fenced in backyard and large deck! Over 1200 sq ft of living space in a community that features sidewalks and a pool. Purchasing unfurnished is an option, however seller would prefer to leave furnished! PROFESSIONAL INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING 9/6/2022

29. 2022-10-04
    historical Active Under Contract 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AMAZING opportunity to buy a starter home or investment in the Westbury Townhome community! This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full and 1 half bathroom townhome has a brand new roof, new flooring and paint throughout, updated kitchen and is FULLY FURNISHED. Eat-in kitchen over looking fenced in backyard and large deck! Over 1200 sq ft of living space in a community that features sidewalks and a pool. Purchasing unfurnished is an option, however seller would prefer to leave furnished! PROFESSIONAL INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING 9/6/2022

30. 2022-09-04
    listed $210,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AMAZING opportunity to buy a starter home or investment in the Westbury Townhome community! This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full and 1 half bathroom townhome has a brand new roof, new flooring and paint throughout, updated kitchen and is FULLY FURNISHED. Eat-in kitchen over looking fenced in backyard and large deck! Over 1200 sq ft of living space in a community that features sidewalks and a pool. Purchasing unfurnished is an option, however seller would prefer to leave furnished! PROFESSIONAL INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING 9/6/2022

31. 2022-09-03
    historical $210,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    AMAZING opportunity to buy a starter home or investment in the Westbury Townhome community! This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 full and 1 half bathroom townhome has a brand new roof, new flooring and paint throughout, updated kitchen and is FULLY FURNISHED. Eat-in kitchen over looking fenced in backyard and large deck! Over 1200 sq ft of living space in a community that features sidewalks and a pool. Purchasing unfurnished is an option, however seller would prefer to leave furnished! PROFESSIONAL INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING 9/6/2022

32. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus $169,900
33. 2021-12-15
    soldstatus $169,900 Closed
34. 2021-10-27
    status Pending
35. 2021-10-23
    price $169,900
36. 2021-10-15
    price $174,900
37. 2021-10-01
    listed $179,900 Active
38. 2014-06-10
    soldstatus $139,000
39. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $139,000
40. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus $139,000 Sold
41. 2014-04-04
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
42. 2014-04-03
    historical
43. 2014-01-13
    price $139,900
44. 2013-10-25
    listed $145,000 Active
45. 2013-10-25
    listed $139,900
46. 2010-06-30
    soldstatus $125,000
47. 2010-06-30
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
48. 2010-06-29
    soldstatus $125,000
49. 2010-05-28
    status Contract
50. 2010-05-17
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,008 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,311 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,008
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$1,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$476
• After-tax cash flow: $2,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+93.7% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-26 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-25 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-04 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-03 Coming Soon $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-23 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-15 Price Changed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-01 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MRIS
• 2014-05-29 Sold (MLS) $139,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-04 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-04-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-13 Price Changed $139,900 MRIS
• 2013-10-25 Listed $145,000 MRIS
• 2013-10-25 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MRIS
• 2010-06-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-28 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-05-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-13 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-05-13 Price Changed $125,000 MRIS
• 2010-03-02 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-03-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-10-21 Listed $129,900 MRIS
• 2009-10-21 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-23 Listed $182,000 MRIS
• 2006-10-23 Sold (MLS) $182,000 MRIS
• 2006-10-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-26 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MRIS
• 2004-02-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-10-03 Listed $129,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,008 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.