912 Sierra Dr · Denton, TX 76209

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1965 7,492 sqft lot $182/sqft · 13% below area Est $229k · 13% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +0.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome HOME!! This 3-bedroom, 1 Full Bath and half Bath, Single-Story HOME, is nestled in a Quiet Neighborhood in the HEART of Downtown Denton, TX. This CHARMING OASIS has a SPACIOUS living area, Plus a Dining Area. Great Location*NEAR UNT, SHOPPING, DINING, AND ENTERTAINMENT, with nearby jogging and biking trails. Priced to Sell*Schedule an appointment, BEFORE IT IS GONE! Buyer and Buyer's Agent to Verify all information.

Key facts

• Near unt
• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• HEART OF DOWNTOWN DENTON
• NEAR UNT
• JOGGING AND BIKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-789/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.9%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,560 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,990
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -12.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
913 Laguna Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+8%)	12mo	$249,500	$211	71
3323 Valley View Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,058 (-4%)	14mo	$258,000	$244	70
3304 Avon Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,163 (+6%)	12mo	$257,500	$221	63
504 Aspen Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+6%)	12mo	$285,000	$246	63
700 Windswept Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	2mo	$251,800	$213	61
507 Yucca Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,165 (+6%)	10mo	$130,000	$112	60
625 Windswept Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	5mo	$249,000	$210	59
3403 Huisache St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+10%)	4mo	$274,800	$227	58
3904 Titan Trl	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,005 (-8%)	7mo	$200,000	$199	52
412 Foxwood Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,229 (+12%)	14mo	$299,900	$244	45
3342 Ashley Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,233 (+12%)	5mo	$289,000	$234	45
525 Pershing Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	15mo	$259,900	$217	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,583
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-60,922
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76209

• Rents YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,771/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $188,283

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-9	+0% $-66	+5% $-122	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-134	+0% $-66	+5% $2	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-15	base $-66	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
929 Sierra Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	958	$2,050	$2.14	45d	1	0.02mi
808 Laguna Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.0	910	$1,565	$1.72	4d	1	0.11mi
1605 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,900	$1.35	45d	1	0.15mi
701 Wolftrap Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$2,000	$1.49	26d	1	0.27mi
3001 Gray Wolf Cir Unit 2 Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	45d	1	0.29mi
3001 Gray Wolf Cir Unit 121 Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	26d	1	0.30mi
624 Wolftrap Dr Unit 626 Denton, TX	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,475	$1.44	12d	1	0.30mi
3501 Valley View Rd Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1078	$1,795	$1.67	45d	1	0.34mi
521 E Windsor Dr Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	711	$1,086	$1.53	1d	7	0.35mi
713 Sun Valley Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,250	$1.91	26d	1	0.39mi
3028 N Bell Ave Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	26d	1	0.47mi
3024 N Bell Ave Unit 3028 Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,700	$1.60	26d	1	0.47mi
3815 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	689	$1,355	$1.97	1d	4	0.47mi
3815 Stuart Rd Unit 2BR2BATH Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	837	$1,325	$1.58	45d	1	0.47mi
3132 Cedar Hill St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,850	$1.34	26d	1	0.47mi
3812 Stuart Rd Denton, TX	2.0	1.5	1098	$1,350	$1.23	26d	1	0.48mi
3012 N Bell Ave Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,650	$1.56	45d	1	0.49mi
3817 Yellowstone Pl Unit ADU Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	45d	1	0.49mi
3008 N Bell Ave Unit 3012 Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,650	$1.56	45d	1	0.50mi
3008 N Bell Ave Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,750	$1.65	26d	1	0.50mi
3225 Hollycreek Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,695	$1.35	1d	1	0.52mi
3805 Atlas Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,795	$1.29	26d	1	0.53mi
3117 Inglewood St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,790	$1.54	45d	1	0.54mi
3825 Camelot St Unit A Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	1d	1	0.58mi
3825 Camelot St Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	14d	1	0.58mi
3825 Camelot St Denton, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$1,300	$1.41	22d	1	0.58mi
217 Tanglewood St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,970	$1.53	0d	1	0.58mi
3232 N Locust St Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,485	$1.60	14d	1	0.62mi
3232 N Locust St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,851	$1.59	45d	1	0.62mi
2731 E Sherman Dr Unit 2102 Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,399	$1.39	7d	1	0.70mi
629 Apollo Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1016	$1,800	$1.77	45d	1	0.73mi
4108 Selene Dr Denton, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$1,730	$1.62	22d	1	0.75mi
1255 Poinsettia Blvd Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	979	$1,930	$1.97	1d	8	0.76mi
1250 Randall St Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,446	$2.71	0d	67	0.79mi
2951 Picadilly Ln Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,931	$1.78	1d	25	0.79mi
201 Coronado Dr Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	727	$1,260	$1.73	1d	12	0.80mi
2219 Kingston Trce Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,645	$1.53	20d	1	0.87mi
2421 N Bell Ave Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	45d	1	0.88mi
3909 N Loop 288 Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$2,023	$2.30	0d	23	0.90mi
3919 Canton Ct Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,195	$1.48	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $199,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    listed $229,900 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Welcome HOME!! This 3-bedroom, 1 Full Bath and half Bath, Single-Story HOME, is nestled in a Quiet Neighborhood in the HEART of Downtown Denton, TX. This CHARMING OASIS has a SPACIOUS living area, Plus a Dining Area. Great Location*NEAR UNT, SHOPPING, DINING, AND ENTERTAINMENT, with nearby jogging and biking trails. Priced to Sell*Schedule an appointment, BEFORE IT IS GONE! Buyer and Buyer's Agent to Verify all information.

16. 2025-08-21
    historical
17. 2025-06-05
    listed $250,000 Active
18. 2010-09-03
    soldstatus
19. 1993-09-08
    soldstatus
20. 1992-06-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,771
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,187
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,982
• Household income: $75,069
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.53%
• Current HPI: 310.6124
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.91%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2010-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,771 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.