10 Worley Road Dr · Sumner, MS 38957

$125,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 428 Days on market

Built 1960 1.30 ac lot $52/sqft · 5% below area Est $132k · 5% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3 bedroom 2.5 bath ranch- style home is situated on a large lot off Highway 49 in Sumner, MS. Features include a formal living room/dining room combination, kitchen/breakfast room combination, bonus room, fireplace, 2 car carport, and two utility rooms.

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($712/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#181 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• West Tallahatchie School District (rural): math 4% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #125 of 130 in MS (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 98% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Tallahatchie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Tallahatchie County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,143
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -5.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,912
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $62,155
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38957

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,987/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 428 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 427 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 426 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 425 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 423 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 422 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 419 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 418 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 417 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 415 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 414 DOM
12. 2026-05-09
    price $125,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom 2.5 bath ranch- style home is situated on a large lot off Highway 49 in Sumner, MS. Features include a formal living room/dining room combination, kitchen/breakfast room combination, bonus room, fireplace, 2 car carport, and two utility rooms.

13. 2025-10-08
    price $135,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom 2.5 bath ranch- style home is situated on a large lot off Highway 49 in Sumner, MS. Features include a formal living room/dining room combination, kitchen/breakfast room combination, bonus room, fireplace, 2 car carport, and two utility rooms.

14. 2025-04-12
    listed $175,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom 2.5 bath ranch- style home is situated on a large lot off Highway 49 in Sumner, MS. Features include a formal living room/dining room combination, kitchen/breakfast room combination, bonus room, fireplace, 2 car carport, and two utility rooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,987 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,987
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$309
• After-tax cash flow: $1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Tallahatchie School District
• NCES district ID: 2804650
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $27,543
• Composite: 5.38/100
• National rank: #10029
• State rank: #125 of 130 in MS

Livability — Sumner

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #16901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 411

Population outlook (Tallahatchie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,680 people
• By 2030: 13,261 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 12,205 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 11,028 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 8,367 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 6,277 · -54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 39% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Iranian 6% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 7%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tallahatchie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.5% · R 46.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.8 2016: D+14.9 2012: D+21.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $125,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $135,000 MLSU
• 2025-04-12 Listed $175,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,987 · +27.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.