The Kettering Plan · La Marque, TX 77053

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily · 1096 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The lovely Kettering plan features one story, three bedrooms, and two full bathrooms. At the front of the home, you will find a large open formal dining and living room, with the living room able to be sectioned off into a home office/study with French doors while simultaneously creating a more intimate dining room area. The open-concept kitchen/breakfast and family room area features an optional island with a breakfast bar for quick dining and an option to add a fireplace in the family room perfect for the winter months. The hallway off of the breakfast room leads to the two secondary bedrooms and second bathroom. A private hallway from the family room leads into the primary bedroom which features an ensuite bathroom including a garden tub and separate shower with optional dual sink vanity. Add a spacious covered patio to complete the home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1095 days

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,118.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1096 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,463 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1096 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,118
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -3.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
637 Cherry Tree Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,684 (+1%)	0mo	$292,900	$174	83
1045 Garnet Star Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,674 (0%)	1mo	$271,990	$162	70
1345 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-3%)	1mo	$278,990	$171	69
1209 Sacred Light Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-4%)	0mo	$259,990	$161	69
1210 Sacred Light Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+4%)	2mo	$297,990	$172	69
1073 Garnet Star Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-3%)	2mo	$276,990	$170	67
1122 Radiant Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,574 (-6%)	0mo	$283,990	$180	66
1349 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+4%)	0mo	$283,990	$164	64
1094 Garnet Star Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,574 (-6%)	0mo	$260,990	$166	63
1313 Blue Moon Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-8%)	0mo	$262,990	$170	60
26563 Eternal Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,574 (-6%)	0mo	$270,000	$172	58
4957 Perennial Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-69,671
• Equity at exit: $40,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-99,809
• Equity at exit: $23,701

Cash invested: $76,753 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 111 active · 70 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77053

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,438
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,112/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $222,299

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-169	-5% $-263	+0% $-358	+5% $-453	+10% $-548
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-435	+0% $-358	+5% $-281	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-288	base $-358	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,530
• Closing costs: $8,224
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	1947	$1,966	$1.01	63d	1	0.51mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	161d	1	0.52mi
445 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$1,990	$0.94	0d	1	0.54mi
4961 Perennial Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1951	$2,100	$1.08	37d	1	0.74mi
9001 Glacier Ave Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	928	$1,175	$1.27	10d	6	0.78mi
5500 FM 2004 Rd #9 Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,395	$1.17	69d	1	1.02mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	184d	1	1.30mi
1109 N Noble Rd Texas City, TX	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,690	$1.48	57d	1	1.37mi
1109 N Noble Rd Texas City, TX	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,690	$1.48	36d	1	1.37mi
106 W Red Oak Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,661	$1.33	85d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 1096 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $264,990 Active 1095 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $264,990 Active 1094 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $264,990 Active 1093 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $264,990 Active 1092 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $264,990 Active 1090 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $264,990 Active 1089 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $264,990 Active 1088 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $264,990 Active 1087 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $264,990 Active 1086 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 1085 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $264,990 Active 1084 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 1083 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 1082 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 1081 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 1080 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 1079 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 1078 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $264,990 Active 1077 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $264,990 Active 1076 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 1075 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $264,990 Active 1074 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 1073 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 1072 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $264,990 Active 1071 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 1070 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $264,990 Active 1069 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 1068 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $264,990 Active 1067 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 1066 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $264,990 Active 1065 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 1064 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 1063 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 1062 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 1061 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 1060 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 1059 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 1058 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 1057 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $264,990 Active 1056 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 1055 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $264,990 Active 1054 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 1053 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $264,990 Active 1052 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 1051 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 1050 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 1049 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 1048 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $264,990 Active 1047 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $264,990 Active 1046 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,355
• − Property taxes: −$4,112
• − Insurance: −$1,371
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − Depreciation: −$7,974
• Taxable loss: −$9,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,198
• Household income: $66,510
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 41% Two or more races 22% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.09%
• Current HPI: 266.6541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $264,990 Zillow