641 Sky Camp Loop #2 · Graford, TX 76449

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 460 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

479 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Retro Lovers! MOTIVATED SELLER is ready to see offers on this adorable Vintage 2 bedroom 1 bath lake place! Situated just a few steps from the water's edge, with amazing views and peaceful surroundings, this could be YOUR Possum Kingdom Lake retreat! Fully furnished (some decor excluded) and ready to use ~ bring your toothbrush, a cozy blanket, your swimsuit and prepare to enjoy and relax; there's even a fenced area for your furry friends! Listing is for improvements with leasehold rights: Sky Camp lease of $7500 per year includes trash, maintenance of common areas, and access to the community boat ramp, fish cleaning station, and courtesy dock for day use. Summer will be back before you know it and you will have an ideal spot for baby splashers and young swimmers, shoreline fishing, paddle boats, kayaking, or canoeing; not far off the channel so it's also close to deeper water when you want to explore all of the beauty Possum Kingdom Lake has to offer. Located near convenience stores, dining, gift shop, and churches. Leave the daily grind behind and come enjoy the PK Lake Life!

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Paddle boats
• Fenced area

Tags

• FENCED AREA
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• FISH CLEANING STATION
• COURTESY DOCK
• SHORELINE FISHING
• PADDLE BOATS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.9% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.97%
• DSCR: 7.45
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.12×
• Total profit: $77,732
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.12×
• Total profit: $175,991
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $1,319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $334

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $39,000 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Attention Retro Lovers! MOTIVATED SELLER is ready to see offers on this adorable Vintage 2 bedroom 1 bath lake place! Situated just a few steps from the water's edge, with amazing views and peaceful surroundings, this could be YOUR Possum Kingdom Lake retreat! Fully furnished (some decor excluded) and ready to use ~ bring your toothbrush, a cozy blanket, your swimsuit and prepare to enjoy and relax; there's even a fenced area for your furry friends! Listing is for improvements with leasehold rights: Sky Camp lease of $7500 per year includes trash, maintenance of common areas, and access to the community boat ramp, fish cleaning station, and courtesy dock for day use. Summer will be back before you know it and you will have an ideal spot for baby splashers and young swimmers, shoreline fishing, paddle boats, kayaking, or canoeing; not far off the channel so it's also close to deeper water when you want to explore all of the beauty Possum Kingdom Lake has to offer. Located near convenience stores, dining, gift shop, and churches. Leave the daily grind behind and come enjoy the PK Lake Life!

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $42,000 Active 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    Attention Retro Lovers! MOTIVATED SELLER is ready to see offers on this adorable Vintage 2 bedroom 1 bath lake place! Situated just a few steps from the water's edge, with amazing views and peaceful surroundings, this could be YOUR Possum Kingdom Lake retreat! Fully furnished (some decor excluded) and ready to use ~ bring your toothbrush, a cozy blanket, your swimsuit and prepare to enjoy and relax; there's even a fenced area for your furry friends! Listing is for improvements with leasehold rights: Sky Camp lease of $7500 per year includes trash, maintenance of common areas, and access to the community boat ramp, fish cleaning station, and courtesy dock for day use. Summer will be back before you know it and you will have an ideal spot for baby splashers and young swimmers, shoreline fishing, paddle boats, kayaking, or canoeing; not far off the channel so it's also close to deeper water when you want to explore all of the beauty Possum Kingdom Lake has to offer. Located near convenience stores, dining, gift shop, and churches. Leave the daily grind behind and come enjoy the PK Lake Life!

19. 2024-12-31
    historical
20. 2024-07-12
    price $45,000
21. 2024-07-03
    price $42,000
22. 2024-05-31
    listed $45,000 Active
23. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
25. 2022-01-26
    listed $42,000 Active
26. 2020-04-17
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2020-04-14
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2020-02-03
    listed $40,000 Active
29. 2016-08-05
    soldstatus
30. 2012-11-03
    historical
31. 2011-11-03
    listed $14,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $518 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $714 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $16,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,880
• After-tax cash flow: $11,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+178.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $39,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $42,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-07-12 Price Changed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $42,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-01-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-01-26 Listed $42,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-04-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-02-03 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2016-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-11-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-11-03 Listed $14,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $518 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.