5305 Avenue M · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$289,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1965 0.30 ac lot Est $288k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom and 2 car garage with bonus room that has closet in back of garage. This home sits on a nice size . 3 acre lot. THIS IS A MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22k ($259k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 95.6% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dan J Kubacak El (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 687 students, 56% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,295 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 95.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 318.93%
• DSCR: 15.19
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,868
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5305 Avenue M	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,788 (0%)	1mo	$289,995	$162	97
12153 24th St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+1%)	11mo	$364,000	$201	72
12316 23rd St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,630 (-9%)	16mo	$295,000	$181	69
12222 23rd St	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,948 (+9%)	2mo	$275,000	$141	67
12106 24th St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-5%)	12mo	$370,000	$218	62
12149 20th St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-8%)	14mo	$239,000	$145	57
11855 23rd St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-3%)	10mo	$399,000	$230	52
4407 B Bar Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-1%)	14mo	$285,000	$161	52
11918 25th St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,632 (-9%)	13mo	$235,000	$144	50
11902 25th St	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (+5%)	11mo	$252,900	$135	48
5225 Main St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-10%)	11mo	$239,000	$149	45
12102 13th St	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,984 (+11%)	11mo	$235,000	$118	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.36×
• Total profit: $1,328,005
• Equity at exit: $43,239

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.06×
• Total profit: $2,928,375
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,665/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,298
• Net cashflow: $21,581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $289,995

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,499
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	0.76mi
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-02
   price $289,995
4. 2026-03-07
   listed $295,900 Active
5. 2025-12-17
   soldstatus
6. 2025-12-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,665 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,665 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $359,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$5,665
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,793
• − Management: −$28,793
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $270,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$64,927
• After-tax cash flow: $194,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $289,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $295,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,665 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.