32 Bud Shire Ln · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$308,494

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Land · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! The Belmont by Lennar Homes combines modern design with comfortable living in 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1,428 sqft. The open layout creates a welcoming flow while the heart of the home boasts quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, 36'' recess panel cabinets and a large island, perfect for entertaining. Luxury Vinyl plank flooring adds warmth and style throughout the main areas of the home. Outside, enjoy instant curb appeal with lush St Aug sod and full irrigation. Perfectly sized and thoughtfully finished, this home delivers the ideal blend of function, beauty and Palm Coast Lifestyle, offering a peaceful, resort-like way of life with miles of quiet beaches, go

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Full irrigation
• Large island

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 36 RECESS PANEL CABINETS
• LARGE ISLAND
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FULL IRRIGATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Windows listed for energy efficiency
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Sprinklers in front and rear; Asphalt road access; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Includes a second bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $212k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,629 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-67,565
• Equity at exit: $45,997

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,404
• Equity at exit: $26,673

Cash invested: $86,378 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,000/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,316

Max offer price $272,254

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,124
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38 Bud Field Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,900	$1.17	14d	1	0.07mi
12 Lytton Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,895	$1.74	3d	1	0.32mi
73 Buttonworth Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,650	$1.23	21d	1	0.47mi
9 Lyons Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,800	$1.27	23d	1	0.48mi
25 Louisville Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,700	$1.01	23d	1	0.51mi
84 Buttonworth Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	23d	1	0.53mi
55 Louisiana Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,950	$1.49	11d	1	0.53mi
106 La Mancha Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$1,900	$1.16	23d	1	0.54mi
11 Louvet Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,725	$1.44	11d	1	0.57mi
92 Buttonworth Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,425	$1.46	3d	1	0.59mi
59 Laramie Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,700	$1.34	14d	1	0.62mi
13 Buttonwood Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,650	$1.28	23d	1	0.62mi
7 Lancaster Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1859	$3,500	$1.88	23d	1	0.63mi
14 Buttonwell Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,675	$1.30	3d	1	0.66mi
19 Buttonwell Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,700	$1.11	3d	1	0.68mi
165 Redbud Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,800	$1.00	3d	1	0.70mi
307 Redbud Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,825	$1.06	23d	1	0.74mi
199 Redbud Rd Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,800	$1.05	23d	1	0.76mi
10 Buttonworth Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,495	$1.18	21d	1	0.77mi
85 Laramie Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	0.79mi
38A Lindsay Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,675	$1.44	3d	1	0.96mi
121 Lindsay Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,700	$1.01	3d	1	1.18mi
34 Bunker Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	1.23mi
14 Bunker View Dr Unit 2 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,645	$1.38	3d	1	1.27mi
32 Bunker View Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$1,500	$1.05	3d	1	1.41mi
12 Bunker View Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,725	$1.08	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $308,494 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $308,494 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $308,494 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,494 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,494 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,494 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,494 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,494 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,494 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $304,494 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,494 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,494 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,494 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,494 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    soldstatus $212,300
16. 2026-04-21
    price $304,494
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $338,494 Active
18. 2025-01-03
    soldstatus $564,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,561 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,561/yr (+$130/mo · 156.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,000
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$8,974
• Taxable loss: −$8,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-62.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $212,300 Public Records
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $304,494 realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $338,494 realMLS
• 2025-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $564,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,000 · +96.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.