154 Shelby Cir · Red Oak, TX 75154

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1997 1.01 ac lot $118/sqft · 16% below area Est $198k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home situated on a full 1-acre lot in Red Oak, TX with no HOA. this property features a spacious living area, functional kitchen layout, and plenty of outdoor space for parking, equipment, animals, or future improvements. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. Great opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking for affordable acreage in a growing area.

Key facts

• Full 1-acre lot
• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FULL 1-ACRE LOT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE FOR PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.01 acres; Parcel number 194965
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered) with 2 covered spaces and 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached; One story; Built in 1997
• Construction: Built in 1997
• Exterior features: Easements: None; Subdivision: Meadow Ridge Estates; Please use GPS for directions

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: (No heating or cooling details provided)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wooden El (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 504 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 573 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,869
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 13.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,365
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $57,136
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 573
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $736	-5% $680	+0% $624	+5% $567	+10% $511
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $533	+0% $624	+5% $714	+10% $805
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $674	base $624	+0.5pp $572	+1.0pp $520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $225,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $250,000 Active 500-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,867/yr (+$239/mo · 370.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $6,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $250,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.