14927 Prickly Pear Cv · Magnolia, TX 77354

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,669 sqft lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $295k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Large island

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Mill Creek HOA (managed by Inframark); Annual HOA fee of $750 covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level on slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2022; Shingle and wood roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Disposal; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,458 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,033
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 1.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14522 Montclair Way	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,261 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$126	85
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-7%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	70
40651 Balsam Run Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,292 (+3%)	1mo	$325,490	$142	69
40762 Rosemary Rain Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,487 (+12%)	1mo	$300,000	$121	67
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-7%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	66
40603 Balsam Run Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-8%)	1mo	$321,990	$158	66
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,061 (-7%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	66
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-8%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	63
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (-13%)	0mo	$317,900	$165	61
40907 Lacey Wood Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,180 (-2%)	2mo	$670,000	$307	60
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,502 (+12%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	58
40807 Hawthorne Glades	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (-15%)	2mo	$259,990	$137	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $146,018
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $426,848
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,473/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,701

Max offer price $269,763

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-86	+0% $-171	+5% $-255	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-367	-5% $-269	+0% $-171	+5% $-72	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-94	base $-171	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.19mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.21mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.34mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.41mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.67mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.87mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $299,900 Active 996-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    historical
17. 2026-04-27
    price $299,900
18. 2026-02-24
    listed $305,000 Active
19. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

20. 2022-07-22
    status Pending, Continue to Show

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

21. 2022-07-12
    price $325,490

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

22. 2022-06-13
    price $323,490

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

23. 2022-06-08
    price $320,490

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

24. 2022-06-08
    price $311,165

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

25. 2022-06-07
    listed $320,490 Active

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Charming brand NEW Express Home in the best location! Lovely curb appeal with landscape package! Wonderful open floor plan with designer details and modern finishes! Great island kitchen with granite countertops! Perfect bedroom one suite with spa like bath and spacious closet! Also features a useful covered back patio! Mill Creek is in a great area and is zoned to Magnolia ISD! Hurry and call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,473 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,473
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $-317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained two-story home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Price Changed $325,490 HARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Price Changed $323,490 HARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $320,490 HARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $311,165 HARMLS
• 2022-06-07 Listed $320,490 HARMLS

Property tax history

+69.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,473 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.