1647 Marsh Ave · Maple Plain, MN 55359

$362,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1952 0.26 ac lot $247/sqft · 20% below area Est $580k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

sold

Key facts

• Scenic trails
• Cul-de-sac
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• CUL-DE-SAC
• SCENIC TRAILS
• BAKER PARK LAKE INDEPENDENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.26 acres (approx. 75 x 133); Publicly maintained road access
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: cash or free and clear

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; 1-car detached garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Electric service with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half levels; Other structures include kennel/dog run, hen house and storage shed; Property on a city street cul-de-sac
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof (8 years old or newer)
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl siding; Partial wood privacy fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one bedroom on the lower level, two on the main/upper levels as listed)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor; One three-quarter bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with daylight/lookout windows, storage space and sump pump; Tile drainage system in basement; Eat-in kitchen; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement with washer hookup, gas dryer hookup and utility sink; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (54.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#655 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $362k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,000 (54.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.46%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,671
• List price: $362,500
• Delta: -36.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5010 Main St E	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+11%)	23mo	$300,000	$183	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-125,942
• Equity at exit: $54,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-196,397
• Equity at exit: $31,342

Cash invested: $101,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55359

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,571/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-1,054

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,974

Max offer price $176,305

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,625
• Closing costs: $10,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1644 Delano St Maple Plain, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,595	$1.68	43d	1	0.12mi
5285 Manchester Dr Maple Plain, MN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	1d	1	0.25mi
1880 Newport St Maple Plain, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	1d	1	0.36mi
4760 Ironwood Cir Minnetrista, MN	3.0–4.0	2.5	1625	$2,999	$1.84	1d	3	0.79mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $362,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $362,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $362,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $362,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $362,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $362,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $362,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $362,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $365,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    listed $365,900 Active 325-char remark
11. 2018-11-02
    soldstatus $213,700 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    sold

12. 2018-11-01
    listed $213,200 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    sold

13. 2018-06-22
    soldstatus $213,700
14. 2016-06-21
    soldstatus $108,500
15. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus $108,500 Sold
16. 2016-05-03
    status Pending
17. 2016-04-21
    historical Contingent - Inspection
18. 2016-03-14
    status Active
19. 2016-02-18
    historical Contingent - Inspection
20. 2015-12-14
    status Active
21. 2015-10-30
    historical
22. 2015-10-05
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 1976-02-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,571 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,815 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,306
• − Property taxes: −$3,571
• − Insurance: −$1,812
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$10,545
• Taxable loss: −$19,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,729
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orono Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725080
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $93,850
• Composite: 62.7/100
• National rank: #673
• State rank: #9 of 301 in MN

Livability — Maple Plain

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #15738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Plain, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,068

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.80%
• Current HPI: 261.8218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1108.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $362,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $365,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-02 Sold (MLS) $213,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-01 Listed $213,200 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $213,700 Public Records
• 2016-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $108,500 Public Records
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) $108,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-21 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-14 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-14 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-05 Listed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,571 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.