1915 Arundel Rd · Lake Shore, MD 21122

$259,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1957 0.60 ac lot $166/sqft · 45% below area Est $474k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#378 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 254 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.32%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,541
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -45.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1904 North Ave	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	6mo	$545,000	$349	72
1936 North Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,612 (+3%)	12mo	$476,000	$295	70
7616 Bay St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-4%)	7mo	$575,000	$380	63
1944 Hilltop Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-12%)	11mo	$410,000	$297	54
1664 Glen Dr	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,692 (+8%)	3mo	$392,000	$232	54
1821 Division Rd	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,428 (-9%)	3mo	$511,000	$358	53
9150 Fort Smallwood Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,580 (+1%)	9mo	$545,000	$345	46
9168 Fort Smallwood Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+12%)	6mo	$499,999	$286	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-34,932
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,989
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21122

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,406/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,327

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Dunlap Rd Pasadena, MD	4.0	2.0	1110	$3,000	$2.70	43d	1	1.43mi
329 Bar Harbor Rd Pasadena, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	10d	1	1.46mi
329 Bar Harbor Rd Pasadena, MD	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    status Active 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

15. 2026-01-09
    status Pending 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

16. 2026-01-05
    historical 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

17. 2025-12-19
    status Active 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

18. 2025-12-18
    listed $274,900 Active 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

19. 2025-12-18
    historical 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Charming Rancher in Water-Oriented Community This 3-bedroom, 1-bath rancher offers comfortable one-level living with a full basement and plenty of potential. Featuring a spacious country kitchen, large living room, dedicated office space, and an additional small family room or flex area, the layout is both functional and versatile. Situated on a desirable corner lot, the home has good bones and presents a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touches and make it your own. Located in a sought-after water-oriented community, you’ll enjoy access to canoeing, kayaking, boating, fishing, and a community beach—truly a place where you can play where you live. Whether you’re dreaming of a peaceful retreat or a home to customize to your vision, this property offers the perfect canvas. PROPERTY DISCLOSURE ISSUE: There is a legal description issue and it will take approximately 2-3 months to clear. PARKING ENTRANCE IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAILBOX.

20. 2025-10-09
    historical
21. 2025-09-04
    listed $289,900 Active
22. 2020-09-23
    historical
23. 2020-09-16
    status Active
24. 2020-07-17
    status Pending
25. 2020-02-08
    listed $274,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,406 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,406 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,406
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,478
• − Management: −$2,478
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$1,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$432
• After-tax cash flow: $2,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lake Shore

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #20490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 61,589
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 61,566
• Household income: $127,587
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -401.00%
• Current HPI: 283.1566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.76%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-08 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,406 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.